Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ]. Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.
Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 11 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 11. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” in my mind winning, here would be the rankings:
I numbered 1-8 what I think will happen.
1. Bellefontaine 29.35 (wins week 10)
Independence 26.85 (wins week 10)
Bellefontaine 25.75 (loses week 10)
2. Hartley 24.4 (wins week 10)
3. Marion Franklin 23.979 (wins week 10)
4. Tri-Valley 23.9 (wins week 10)
5. Jackson 23.25 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 23.15 (wins week 10)
6. Independence 21.307 (loses week 10)
Tri-Valley 20.05 (loses week 10)
7. Dover 19.8 (wins week 10)
8. New Philadelphia 19.25 (loses week 10)
Athens 19.15 (wins week 10)
Granville 19.148 (wins week 10)
Jackson 18.75 (loses week 10)
Maysville 17.75 (wins week 10)
Prediction as of 10/21/17
#1 Bellefontaine hosts #8 New Philadelphia
#2 Hartley hosts #7 Dover
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Independence
#4 Tri-Valley hosts #5 Jackson
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#1 Bellefontaine (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 246.5/10= 29.35 Projected Average (Approx. 25.75 if Kenton Ridge beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=194
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-3) & gained L2=31 Minus 3.6 from ave. if KR wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
D4 St. Marys over D3 Wapakoneta (0), if Wa wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Wa wins
D2 Troy over D3 Piqua (5.5), if Pi wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Pi wins
D4 Graham/D4 Jonathan Alder. They beat both (5).
D5 Indian Lake over D4 Ben Logan. They beat both (5). Minus .05 if BL wins
D4 Shawnee over D2 Tecumseh. They beat both (6). Minus .1 if Te wins
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#2 Independence (Projected 8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.8= 43.5/10 + 198/8.8 = 26.85 Projected Average (Approx. 21.307 if Walnut Ridge beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 37.5, L2= 138.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Walnut Ridge (8-0) & gained L2= 43.5 Minus 5.543 from ave. if FH wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
D5 Johnstown over D5 Heath (4.5), if Hea wins (4.5), Minus .511 from ave. if Hea wins
D3 Hartley over D3 St. Charles (0), if StC wins (5.5), Add .625 to ave. if StC wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (0); if Af wins (4), Add .455 to ave if Af wins
D3 Marion Franklin over D3 South (5.5); if So wins (0), Minus .625 from ave if So wins
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#3 Hartley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 51.5/10 +192.5/10 = 24.4 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1= 45.5, L2= 176.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat St. Charles (1-8) & gained L2= 5.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if CC wins
D1 Lorain over D3 Shaw (0); if Shaw wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Shaw wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if Chilli wins
D1 Jerome over D2 Kilbourne (0); if Kil wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Kil wins
D3 DeSales/D3 Watterson (5.5). They beat both.
D5 Ready over D4 Bexley (5); if Bex wins (0), Minus .5 from aver if Bex wins
D1 Jackson over D2 Hoover (0); if Hoo wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Hoo wins
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#4 Marion Franklin (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.6= 45/10 + 187/9.6 = 23.979 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=39.5 , L2=159
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat South (3-5) & gained L2= 12.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .677 to ave. if CC wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (5.5); if Nor wins (0), Minus .573 to ave. if Nor wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .573 to ave. if Chilli wins
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (4). They beat both. Add .156 if Af wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
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#5 Tri-Valley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 194/10=23.9 Projected Ave. (Approx. 20.05 if Maysville beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 39.5, L2= 142.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Maysville (7-2) & gained L2= 32 Minus 3.75 from ave. if Ma wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Cr wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins
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#6 Jackson (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47.5/10 + 185/10 = 23.25 Projected Average (Approx. 18.75 if Chillicothe beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 41.5, L2= 126
Week 10 L1=6 beat Chillicothe (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.5 from ave. if Chilli wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 20
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (0), Minus .5 from ave. if VC wins
D5 Liberty Union over D4 Fairfield Union (0); if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 to ave. if FU wins
D4 Gallia Academy over D5 South Point (4.5), if SP wins (0), Minus .45 from ave. if SP wins
D4 Batavia over D2 Western Brown (0); if WB wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if WB wins
D4 Washington over D3 Miami Trace (5.5); They beat both. Minus .5 if MT wins
D3 Hillsboro over D4 McClain (5); They beat both. Add .5 if Mc wins
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#7 Dover (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 159/10 = 19.8 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=33.5 , L2=94
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (8-1) & gained L2= 42 Minus 4.75 from ave. if NP wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 23
D3 JFK over D1 John Marshall (6.5); if JM wins (0), Minus .65 from ave. if JM wins
D2 Lake over D2 Green (6); if Gr wins (0), Minus .6 from ave. if Gr wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
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#8 New Philadelphia (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 42/10 + 150.5/10 = 19.25 Projected Average (Approx. 23.15 if NP beats Dover in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=132.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-3). Dover has L2=33.5 Add 3.9 to ave. if NP wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 18
D4 Indian Valley over D4 Claymont (0), if Cl wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CF wins
D2 Mount Vernon over D3 West Holmes (0); if WH wins (6), Add .6 to ave. if WH wins
D4 Northwest over D6 Loudenville (4); if Lou wins (0), Minus .4 from ave. if Lou wins
D3 Hartley over D2 St. Charles (0); if StC wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if StC wins
D5 CCC over D7 Farrell PA (3.5); if Far wins (0), Minus .35 from ave. if Far wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
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#9 Granville (Projected 8-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 43.5/10 + 146.5/9.9=19.148 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=120.5
Week 10 L1=6 Watkins Memorial beat (2-7) gained L2=11 Minus 1.711 if WM wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D3 Hamilton Township over D4 Circleville (5); if Cir wins (0), Minus .505 if Cir wins
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .556 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (0), if Nor wins (5.5); Add .556 to ave. if Nor wins
D4 Lakewood/D4 Utica (5). They beat both.
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (0), if Northridge wins (4); Add .404 to ave. if Northridge wins
D4 Licking Valley over D2 Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .505 to ave. if LH wins
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#10 Athens (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10=45/10 + 146.5/10 = 19.15 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=91
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (9-0) & gained L2=40.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15
D2 Logan over D3 Warren Local (5.5); if WL wins (6),Add ..05 to ave. if WL wins. Athens beat both.
D3 Granville over D3 Watkins Memorial (0); if WM wins (5.5), Add .55 if WM wins.
D4 Meigs over D5 Alexander (4.5); if Al wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins. Athens beat both.
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (4.5), Minus .05 from ave. if VC wins. Athens beat both.
D4 Waverly over D5 River Valley (0) ; If RV wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if RV wins
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#11 Maysville (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 37.5/10 + 139.5/10 = 17.7 Projected Ave. (Beats Tri-Valley)
Week 1-9 L1= 32, L2= 85.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Tri-Valley (8-1) & gained L2= 39.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D5 Coshocton over D4 RiverView (5), if RV wins (0), Minus ,5 if RV wins
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (4.5), if Nor wins (0); Minus .45 from ave. if Nor wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan (0), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville (0), if Cr wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins
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According to Joe Eitel, Max win out for the following is:
Beechcroft 17.2687
Buckeye Valley 17.6399
DeSales 17.6944
Eastmoor 18.0423
They may not be mathematically eliminated, but they aren’t going to make the top 8.
Region 11 Extreme Analysis
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teach1coach2
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Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Last edited by teach1coach2 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Thanks for the detailed analysis. Awesome job!
I was planning to do something similar this weekend, but haven't gotten around to it yet. You probably saved me a lot of time!
I was planning to do something similar this weekend, but haven't gotten around to it yet. You probably saved me a lot of time!
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Raider6309
- SEOPS HOF
- Posts: 12909
- Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:00 pm
- Location: Athens
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Bring the Heat
- Freshman Team
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Very good analysis and like you said hard to pick winners week 10.
It will come down to who you beat and if they can win.
You can only control the game you play.
One addition would be for Dover.
Wooster plays d2 Ashland. Ashland should be favored but West Holmes looks like they gave them a real scare wk-9.
It will come down to who you beat and if they can win.
You can only control the game you play.
One addition would be for Dover.
Wooster plays d2 Ashland. Ashland should be favored but West Holmes looks like they gave them a real scare wk-9.
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Raider6309
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- Location: Athens
Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
I have Athens at 19.1 if they win
L1 45
L2 146
We need help. Most would say Dover should beat New Philadelphia by 14-21. Granville and Athens are really close also
Jackson, Granville, New Philadelphia, Dover, Athens, Columbus Academy will be fighting for three spots
L1 45
L2 146
We need help. Most would say Dover should beat New Philadelphia by 14-21. Granville and Athens are really close also
Jackson, Granville, New Philadelphia, Dover, Athens, Columbus Academy will be fighting for three spots
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teach1coach2
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Yep. I forgot to add in L1 points from NY if you beat them.
L1 45
L2 146.5 (I still get this for L2)
19.15 I will adjust it.
L1 45
L2 146.5 (I still get this for L2)
19.15 I will adjust it.
Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Went ahead and did some calculations tonight. A few things I noticed.
Dover could beat New Philly and still end up just behind them. In fact, that's how I have it projected.
If Athens beats NY, I would have them in at #8, but obviously they would need a lot of games to go their way.
Hopefully Jackson wins, so this doesn't matter, but they could still have an outside shot if they lose to Chillicothe. They would need a game or two to go their way that I didn't project, but it's very possible. An 8-2 Jackson, 9-1 Granville, 9-1 Athens, 8-2 New Philly, and 7-3 Dover would all be extremely close.
Here are the seeds that I ended up with...
#1 - Bellfontaine (9-1) - 28.8000
#2 - Hartley (9-1) - 25.0000
#3 - Marion-Franklin (8-2) - 24.5521
#4 - Tri-Valley (9-1) - 23.9000
#5 - Jackson (9-1) - 23.2000
#6 - Independence (7-2) - 21.7235
#7 - Granville (9-1) - 19.1985
#8 - New Philadelphia (8-2) - 19.1495
Dover (7-3) - 18.7000
Athens (8-2) - 14.6500
Maysville (7-3) - 13.2000
EDIT: New L2 divisor for New Philly changed my projection of their overall average from 19.0000 to 19.1495.
Dover could beat New Philly and still end up just behind them. In fact, that's how I have it projected.
If Athens beats NY, I would have them in at #8, but obviously they would need a lot of games to go their way.
Hopefully Jackson wins, so this doesn't matter, but they could still have an outside shot if they lose to Chillicothe. They would need a game or two to go their way that I didn't project, but it's very possible. An 8-2 Jackson, 9-1 Granville, 9-1 Athens, 8-2 New Philly, and 7-3 Dover would all be extremely close.
Here are the seeds that I ended up with...
#1 - Bellfontaine (9-1) - 28.8000
#2 - Hartley (9-1) - 25.0000
#3 - Marion-Franklin (8-2) - 24.5521
#4 - Tri-Valley (9-1) - 23.9000
#5 - Jackson (9-1) - 23.2000
#6 - Independence (7-2) - 21.7235
#7 - Granville (9-1) - 19.1985
#8 - New Philadelphia (8-2) - 19.1495
Dover (7-3) - 18.7000
Athens (8-2) - 14.6500
Maysville (7-3) - 13.2000
EDIT: New L2 divisor for New Philly changed my projection of their overall average from 19.0000 to 19.1495.
Last edited by ironman02 on Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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teach1coach2
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
I put a theme with the same name on yappi.com and someone there said that Canton CC game with a PA team is cancelled. Here is the revised projection if it is true that Canton CC will not have a game that counts week 10 and NP drops to L2 divisor of 99. If New Philly loses, that cancellation may drop them to 9 and out.
Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ]. Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.
Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 11 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 11. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” in my mind winning, here would be the rankings:
I numbered 1-8 what I think will happen.
1. Bellefontaine 29.35 (wins week 10)
Independence 26.85 (wins week 10)
Bellefontaine 25.75 (loses week 10)
2. Hartley 24.4 (wins week 10)
3. Marion Franklin 23.979 (wins week 10)
4. Tri-Valley 23.9 (wins week 10)
5. Jackson 23.25 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 22.982 (wins week 10)
6. Independence 21.307 (loses week 10)
Tri-Valley 20.05 (loses week 10)
7. Dover 19.8 (wins week 10)
Athens 19.15 (wins week 10)
8. Granville 19.148 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 19.048 (loses week 10)
Jackson 18.75 (loses week 10)
Maysville 17.75 (wins week 10)
Prediction as of 10/21/17
#1 Bellefontaine hosts #8 Granville
#2 Hartley hosts #7 Dover
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Independence
#4 Tri-Valley hosts #5 Jackson
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#1 Bellefontaine (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 246.5/10= 29.35 Projected Average (Approx. 25.75 if Kenton Ridge beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=194
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-3) & gained L2=31 Minus 3.6 from ave. if KR wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
D4 St. Marys over D3 Wapakoneta (0), if Wa wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Wa wins
D2 Troy over D3 Piqua (5.5), if Pi wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Pi wins
D4 Graham/D4 Jonathan Alder. They beat both (5).
D5 Indian Lake over D4 Ben Logan. They beat both (5). Minus .05 if BL wins
D4 Shawnee over D2 Tecumseh. They beat both (6). Minus .1 if Te wins
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#2 Independence (Projected 8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.8= 43.5/10 + 198/8.8 = 26.85 Projected Average (Approx. 21.307 if Walnut Ridge beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 37.5, L2= 138.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Walnut Ridge (8-0) & gained L2= 43.5 Minus 5.543 from ave. if FH wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
D5 Johnstown over D5 Heath (4.5), if Hea wins (4.5), Minus .511 from ave. if Hea wins
D3 Hartley over D3 St. Charles (0), if StC wins (5.5), Add .625 to ave. if StC wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (0); if Af wins (4), Add .455 to ave if Af wins
D3 Marion Franklin over D3 South (5.5); if So wins (0), Minus .625 from ave if So wins
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#3 Hartley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 51.5/10 +192.5/10 = 24.4 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1= 45.5, L2= 176.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat St. Charles (1-8) & gained L2= 5.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if CC wins
D1 Lorain over D3 Shaw (0); if Shaw wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Shaw wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if Chilli wins
D1 Jerome over D2 Kilbourne (0); if Kil wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Kil wins
D3 DeSales/D3 Watterson (5.5). They beat both.
D5 Ready over D4 Bexley (5); if Bex wins (0), Minus .5 from aver if Bex wins
D1 Jackson over D2 Hoover (0); if Hoo wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Hoo wins
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#4 Marion Franklin (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.6= 45/10 + 187/9.6 = 23.979 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=39.5 , L2=159
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat South (3-5) & gained L2= 12.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .677 to ave. if CC wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (5.5); if Nor wins (0), Minus .573 to ave. if Nor wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .573 to ave. if Chilli wins
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (4). They beat both. Add .156 if Af wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
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#5 Tri-Valley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 194/10=23.9 Projected Ave. (Approx. 20.05 if Maysville beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 39.5, L2= 142.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Maysville (7-2) & gained L2= 32 Minus 3.75 from ave. if Ma wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Cr wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins
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#6 Jackson (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47.5/10 + 185/10 = 23.25 Projected Average (Approx. 18.75 if Chillicothe beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 41.5, L2= 126
Week 10 L1=6 beat Chillicothe (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.5 from ave. if Chilli wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (0), Minus .5 from ave. if VC wins
D5 Liberty Union over D4 Fairfield Union (0); if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 to ave. if FU wins
D4 Gallia Academy over D5 South Point (4.5), if SP wins (0), Minus .45 from ave. if SP wins
D4 Batavia over D2 Western Brown (0); if WB wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if WB wins
D4 Washington over D3 Miami Trace (5.5); They beat both. Minus .5 if MT wins
D3 Hillsboro over D4 McClain (5); They beat both. Add .5 if Mc wins
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#7 Dover (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 159/10 = 19.8 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=33.5 , L2=94
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (8-1) & gained L2= 42 Minus 4.75 from ave. if NP wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 23
D3 JFK over D1 John Marshall (6.5); if JM wins (0), Minus .65 from ave. if JM wins
D2 Lake over D2 Green (6); if Gr wins (0), Minus .6 from ave. if Gr wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
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#8 New Philadelphia (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 42/10 + 147/9.9 = 19.048 Projected Average (Approx. 22.982 if NP beats Dover in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=132.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-3). Dover has L2=33.5 Add 3.934 to ave. if NP wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D4 Indian Valley over D4 Claymont (0), if Cl wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CF wins
D2 Mount Vernon over D3 West Holmes (0); if WH wins (6), Add .6 to ave. if WH wins
D4 Northwest over D6 Loudenville (4); if Lou wins (0), Minus .4 from ave. if Lou wins
D3 Hartley over D2 St. Charles (0); if StC wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if StC wins
D5 CCC over D7 Farrell PA (cancelled game). Changes NP L2 divisor.
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
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#9 Granville (Projected 8-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 43.5/10 + 146.5/9.9=19.148 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=120.5
Week 10 L1=6 Watkins Memorial beat (2-7) gained L2=11 Minus 1.711 if WM wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D3 Hamilton Township over D4 Circleville (5); if Cir wins (0), Minus .505 if Cir wins
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .556 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (0), if Nor wins (5.5); Add .556 to ave. if Nor wins
D4 Lakewood/D4 Utica (5). They beat both.
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (0), if Northridge wins (4); Add .404 to ave. if Northridge wins
D4 Licking Valley over D2 Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .505 to ave. if LH wins
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#10 Athens (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10=45/10 + 146.5/10 = 19.15 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=91
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (9-0) & gained L2=40.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15
D2 Logan over D3 Warren Local (5.5); if WL wins (6),Add ..05 to ave. if WL wins. Athens beat both.
D3 Granville over D3 Watkins Memorial (0); if WM wins (5.5), Add .55 if WM wins.
D4 Meigs over D5 Alexander (4.5); if Al wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins. Athens beat both.
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (4.5), Minus .05 from ave. if VC wins. Athens beat both.
D4 Waverly over D5 River Valley (0) ; If RV wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if RV wins
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#11 Maysville (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 37.5/10 + 139.5/10 = 17.7 Projected Ave. (Beats Tri-Valley)
Week 1-9 L1= 32, L2= 85.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Tri-Valley (8-1) & gained L2= 39.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D5 Coshocton over D4 RiverView (5), if RV wins (0), Minus ,5 if RV wins
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (4.5), if Nor wins (0); Minus .45 from ave. if Nor wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan (0), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville (0), if Cr wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins
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According to Joe Eitel, Max win out for the following is:
Beechcroft 17.2687
Buckeye Valley 17.6399
DeSales 17.6944
Eastmoor 18.0423
They may not be mathematically eliminated, but they aren’t going to make the top 8.
Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ]. Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.
Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 11 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 11. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” in my mind winning, here would be the rankings:
I numbered 1-8 what I think will happen.
1. Bellefontaine 29.35 (wins week 10)
Independence 26.85 (wins week 10)
Bellefontaine 25.75 (loses week 10)
2. Hartley 24.4 (wins week 10)
3. Marion Franklin 23.979 (wins week 10)
4. Tri-Valley 23.9 (wins week 10)
5. Jackson 23.25 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 22.982 (wins week 10)
6. Independence 21.307 (loses week 10)
Tri-Valley 20.05 (loses week 10)
7. Dover 19.8 (wins week 10)
Athens 19.15 (wins week 10)
8. Granville 19.148 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 19.048 (loses week 10)
Jackson 18.75 (loses week 10)
Maysville 17.75 (wins week 10)
Prediction as of 10/21/17
#1 Bellefontaine hosts #8 Granville
#2 Hartley hosts #7 Dover
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Independence
#4 Tri-Valley hosts #5 Jackson
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#1 Bellefontaine (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 246.5/10= 29.35 Projected Average (Approx. 25.75 if Kenton Ridge beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=194
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-3) & gained L2=31 Minus 3.6 from ave. if KR wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
D4 St. Marys over D3 Wapakoneta (0), if Wa wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Wa wins
D2 Troy over D3 Piqua (5.5), if Pi wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Pi wins
D4 Graham/D4 Jonathan Alder. They beat both (5).
D5 Indian Lake over D4 Ben Logan. They beat both (5). Minus .05 if BL wins
D4 Shawnee over D2 Tecumseh. They beat both (6). Minus .1 if Te wins
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#2 Independence (Projected 8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.8= 43.5/10 + 198/8.8 = 26.85 Projected Average (Approx. 21.307 if Walnut Ridge beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 37.5, L2= 138.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Walnut Ridge (8-0) & gained L2= 43.5 Minus 5.543 from ave. if FH wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
D5 Johnstown over D5 Heath (4.5), if Hea wins (4.5), Minus .511 from ave. if Hea wins
D3 Hartley over D3 St. Charles (0), if StC wins (5.5), Add .625 to ave. if StC wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (0); if Af wins (4), Add .455 to ave if Af wins
D3 Marion Franklin over D3 South (5.5); if So wins (0), Minus .625 from ave if So wins
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#3 Hartley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 51.5/10 +192.5/10 = 24.4 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1= 45.5, L2= 176.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat St. Charles (1-8) & gained L2= 5.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if CC wins
D1 Lorain over D3 Shaw (0); if Shaw wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Shaw wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if Chilli wins
D1 Jerome over D2 Kilbourne (0); if Kil wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Kil wins
D3 DeSales/D3 Watterson (5.5). They beat both.
D5 Ready over D4 Bexley (5); if Bex wins (0), Minus .5 from aver if Bex wins
D1 Jackson over D2 Hoover (0); if Hoo wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Hoo wins
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#4 Marion Franklin (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.6= 45/10 + 187/9.6 = 23.979 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=39.5 , L2=159
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat South (3-5) & gained L2= 12.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .677 to ave. if CC wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (5.5); if Nor wins (0), Minus .573 to ave. if Nor wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .573 to ave. if Chilli wins
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (4). They beat both. Add .156 if Af wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
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#5 Tri-Valley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 194/10=23.9 Projected Ave. (Approx. 20.05 if Maysville beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 39.5, L2= 142.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Maysville (7-2) & gained L2= 32 Minus 3.75 from ave. if Ma wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Cr wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins
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#6 Jackson (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47.5/10 + 185/10 = 23.25 Projected Average (Approx. 18.75 if Chillicothe beats them in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 41.5, L2= 126
Week 10 L1=6 beat Chillicothe (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.5 from ave. if Chilli wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (0), Minus .5 from ave. if VC wins
D5 Liberty Union over D4 Fairfield Union (0); if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 to ave. if FU wins
D4 Gallia Academy over D5 South Point (4.5), if SP wins (0), Minus .45 from ave. if SP wins
D4 Batavia over D2 Western Brown (0); if WB wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if WB wins
D4 Washington over D3 Miami Trace (5.5); They beat both. Minus .5 if MT wins
D3 Hillsboro over D4 McClain (5); They beat both. Add .5 if Mc wins
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#7 Dover (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 159/10 = 19.8 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=33.5 , L2=94
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (8-1) & gained L2= 42 Minus 4.75 from ave. if NP wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 23
D3 JFK over D1 John Marshall (6.5); if JM wins (0), Minus .65 from ave. if JM wins
D2 Lake over D2 Green (6); if Gr wins (0), Minus .6 from ave. if Gr wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
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#8 New Philadelphia (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 42/10 + 147/9.9 = 19.048 Projected Average (Approx. 22.982 if NP beats Dover in week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=132.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-3). Dover has L2=33.5 Add 3.934 to ave. if NP wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D4 Indian Valley over D4 Claymont (0), if Cl wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CF wins
D2 Mount Vernon over D3 West Holmes (0); if WH wins (6), Add .6 to ave. if WH wins
D4 Northwest over D6 Loudenville (4); if Lou wins (0), Minus .4 from ave. if Lou wins
D3 Hartley over D2 St. Charles (0); if StC wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if StC wins
D5 CCC over D7 Farrell PA (cancelled game). Changes NP L2 divisor.
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
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#9 Granville (Projected 8-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 43.5/10 + 146.5/9.9=19.148 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=120.5
Week 10 L1=6 Watkins Memorial beat (2-7) gained L2=11 Minus 1.711 if WM wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D3 Hamilton Township over D4 Circleville (5); if Cir wins (0), Minus .505 if Cir wins
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .556 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (0), if Nor wins (5.5); Add .556 to ave. if Nor wins
D4 Lakewood/D4 Utica (5). They beat both.
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (0), if Northridge wins (4); Add .404 to ave. if Northridge wins
D4 Licking Valley over D2 Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .505 to ave. if LH wins
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#10 Athens (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10=45/10 + 146.5/10 = 19.15 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=91
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (9-0) & gained L2=40.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15
D2 Logan over D3 Warren Local (5.5); if WL wins (6),Add ..05 to ave. if WL wins. Athens beat both.
D3 Granville over D3 Watkins Memorial (0); if WM wins (5.5), Add .55 if WM wins.
D4 Meigs over D5 Alexander (4.5); if Al wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins. Athens beat both.
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (4.5), Minus .05 from ave. if VC wins. Athens beat both.
D4 Waverly over D5 River Valley (0) ; If RV wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if RV wins
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#11 Maysville (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 37.5/10 + 139.5/10 = 17.7 Projected Ave. (Beats Tri-Valley)
Week 1-9 L1= 32, L2= 85.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Tri-Valley (8-1) & gained L2= 39.5
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D5 Coshocton over D4 RiverView (5), if RV wins (0), Minus ,5 if RV wins
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (4.5), if Nor wins (0); Minus .45 from ave. if Nor wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan (0), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville (0), if Cr wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins
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According to Joe Eitel, Max win out for the following is:
Beechcroft 17.2687
Buckeye Valley 17.6399
DeSales 17.6944
Eastmoor 18.0423
They may not be mathematically eliminated, but they aren’t going to make the top 8.
Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Will be interesting to see if this game is definitely cancelled. Won't this actually help New Philly though? The drop in the L2 divisor will increase their average.teach1coach2 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:43 pm I put a theme with the same name on yappi.com and someone there said that Canton CC game with a PA team is cancelled. Here is the revised projection if it is true that Canton CC will not have a game that counts week 10 and NP drops to L2 divisor of 99. If New Philly loses, that cancellation may drop them to 9 and out.
I suppose I was assuming that Canton CC would have lost that game, but you were projecting them to win, so maybe that's where our thinking differs.
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teach1coach2
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
CCC would have definitely won. It would have helped New Philly.
I emailed Joe Eitel and he verified that CCC is playing Oil City, but it was scheduled after the OHSAA deadline so it goes as CCC has an off weak as far as Harbin points.
I emailed Joe Eitel and he verified that CCC is playing Oil City, but it was scheduled after the OHSAA deadline so it goes as CCC has an off weak as far as Harbin points.
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93Bulldog
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Can somebody post exactly what Athens needs to happen to get in?
I know its a long shot - just curious.
I know its a long shot - just curious.
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Ttomcat99
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Im looking at possibly a New Philly or Jackson loss may squeak them in at the 8 spot over Granville. Both have tough games friday. May come down to both loosing for Athens to get in
Some wish for it but we work for it Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Do the math, bulldog!!
New Philly having a lower L2 divisor kind of hurts Athens. Athens could still finish higher than them, but they would need more help than before, in my opinion. I was projecting CCC to lose, but after looking harder at their opponents (thanks to teach1coach2), I think he's right that they would have beaten Farrell, PA. Doesn't matter now but I always had CCC giving NP no L2 points this week anyway.
Anyway, with a win over NY, I think Athens finishes at 19.1000. I now have New Philly finishing at 19.1495 with a loss to Dover. In that scenario, I also have Dover finishing at 18.7000, despite the win over New Philly. So basically, Athens will probably need to root for Jackson to lose now, and if that doesn't happen, they need some games to go their way among their beaten opponents, as well as with NP, Dover, and/or Granville's opponents. It's VERY close, so a game or two could change the whole thing.
So, basically, Athens needs this...
#1 - Beat NY
#2 - Chillicothe beat Jackson and get additional help against NP/Dover/Granville
or
#1 - Beat NY
#2 - Get several favorable results in various games that impact L2 points for them and teams like Granville, NP, and Dover.
There are probably other scenarios, but to me, this seems like the most clear cut path to the playoffs for Athens.
Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
By the way, Wellston/Vinton County is a VERY crucial game for Jackson and Athens. I am currently projecting VC to win that game. If it goes the other way, Jackson could finish ahead of Athens, even with a loss on Friday. So, Jackson needs to root hard for Wellston and Athens needs to root for VC, which is kind of ironic since a Wellston win would raise Athens' average more than a VC win, but it would also help Jackson more. That make sense? 
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93Bulldog
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
hahaha makes total sense. Thanks
I'd hate to see Athens miss out by a hundredth of a point. Makes me wonder if Watkins Memorial losing to Newark Catholic as time expired could have made a difference if WM had won. Crazy. lol
I'd hate to see Athens miss out by a hundredth of a point. Makes me wonder if Watkins Memorial losing to Newark Catholic as time expired could have made a difference if WM had won. Crazy. lol
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Raider6309
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Actually week 10 Newark Catholic vs Northridge could be big. We need NC to win so Granville doesn't get the points. We are close with Granville
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teach1coach2
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Raider6309
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
Yep. But all said and done it’s gonna be Bishop Hartley vs Akron SVSM week 14. Surprised how much better SVSM is compared to when they played a good public school week 1teach1coach2 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:49 pm I think Newark Catholic will win.
In 2 days, all will be known.
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ohwkGREATNESSyrio
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Re: Region 11 Extreme Analysis
In about 30 some hours the picture will be clear.
I AM HARMS WAY. Life is a knive fight. Bring guns for the fun.