Does schedule strength determine post season success?

[efarns]

It helps some, but it's usually vastly overstated.

[BurgGrad6]

I think it helps some, but at the end of the day if you don’t have the jimmys and joes you’re not going to succeed in the post season.

[Burgfan/grad85]

I think it helps tremendously! IMO if you play competition that's just as good or better than you it gives you an idea of what you need to do to get better and then in return in the long run your team will be much improved. I think every team needs to have 1 or 2 games on the schedule where they play bigger and better teams and you never know what the outcome will be. but one thing that will happen is you will be a better team from it . The old saying is your only as good as your competition.

[FANOSPORTS]

I think it helps tremendously! IMO if you play competition that's just as good or better than you it gives you an idea of what you need to do to get better and then in return in the long run your team will be much improved. I think every team needs to have 1 or 2 games on the schedule where they play bigger and better teams and you never know what the outcome will be. but one thing that will happen is you will be a better team from it . The old saying is your only as good as your competition.

And you get mega points during the season when you beat a bigger and better team. When was the last time a 5-5 or 6-4 team in SEO made the playoffs ? It happens more frequently in the other regions of the state with caliber of competition being a key component of that.

[enigmaax]

I’ve never seen any real evidence that it makes a significant difference, especially when talking about one or two games a season. Yes, there are a few examples where good teams play tough schedules and then do well in the playoffs, but there are also numerous other factors that would lead one to believe those teams would win regardless of who they played.

As for teams making the playoffs at 5-5 or 6-4, it actually happens about 4 out of 5 years in our local D-VII region (was 23, then 25, now Region 27). There’s nothing conclusive about scheduling that would predict success as a standalone item in those cases:

2017 - River (6-4) lost to four 7+ win teams (only beat one team with a winning record) and lost by a point in the Regional Final to Danville (who was 3-1 against 7+ win teams)

2015 - Shadyside (4-6) played 7 games against 7+ win trams (8 against above .500) and won two of them. They still lost in the 1st Round to Trimble, who went 1-1 outsie the Hocking beat 1-9 NY, lost to 9-1 Alexander). Trimble then lost to Caldwell, who had only beaten one team with a winning record.
Sciotoville and South Gallia both also made it at 6-4, but lost in the first round badly.
Danville beat two teams with a winning record (both 8+) by a combined 78-13 and won the region.

2014 - #8 seed Danville (6-4) drilled #7 seed Symmes Valley (6-4) in the last regular season game, 54-6. Danville had also only lost by a TD to 10-0 Fredericktown & still lost in the first round to Shadyside, who played two less above .500 teams than Danville. Trimble only played three above .500 teams (half of what Danville did) and won the region.

2013 - Beallsville (6-4) didn’t beat a team with a winning record but got beat by two 10-0 teams by a combined 90 points, then lost in the first round to Trimble 61-0. Trimble went to the State Championship game with its best regular season wins being over Wahama and Southern.

2011 - Rosecrans (6-4) played and lost to Danville in the regular season, then turned around and upset them in the first round of playoffs. They fell the next week to Buckeye Central, who hadn’t beaten a single team with a winning record.

In the decade before that, 11 teams made it at 5-5 or 6-4. Outside of the one season that Newark Catholic won the region at 6-4, teams were 2-10 in the playoffs. Even that NC team lost to a 3-6 team in the regular season & only played 4 teams above .500 (went 1-3).

I know everyone points to the MAC as proof of the theory, but that conference is ananomaly with a number of other critical factors that set them up for success before they even set foot on the field against each other.

[FANOSPORTS]

I think it helps tremendously! IMO if you play competition that's just as good or better than you it gives you an idea of what you need to do to get better and then in return in the long run your team will be much improved. I think every team needs to have 1 or 2 games on the schedule where they play bigger and better teams and you never know what the outcome will be. but one thing that will happen is you will be a better team from it . The old saying is your only as good as your competition.

And you get mega points during the season when you beat a bigger and better team. When was the last time a 5-5 or 6-4 team in SEO made the playoffs ? It happens more frequently in the other regions of the state with caliber of competition being a key component of that.

It does happen in SEO but much more infrequently than in other regions and when it does happen, It's in D6 and D7 only. Of the 22 teams that made it last year (2017) in all divisions with 6-4 or worse records only River was from a SEO region. (SE-1 , SW-2, CENTRAL-2, NW-6, NE-11).

[FANOSPORTS]

Another thing that cracks me up is that Region 27 ( technically SE Region) stretches from the southernmost point of the Ohio river to schools up in Richland county around Mansfield which is approximately 200 miles. That's crazy as It's only 50 more miles to Cleveland from there.

[enigmaax]

So, a couple of points. Getting into the playoffs at 6-4 Or whatever doesn't mean you played a great schedule, no matter where it is. In Region 25, four teams with 4-6 wins made the playoffs because there were only four teams in the region that won more than 6 games. Somebody had to fill out the field. The same thing happened in Region 28, where there were only 3 teams with more than six wins and two MAC teams who were 6-4 played for the regional title (Minster won the whole division). Every game Minster lost was to a bigger school in their conference, but did they do well in the postseason BECAUSE they play in a tough conference or did they happen to be the best small school in the state that simply lost more games because they played in a tough conference? I mean, they beat two playoff opponents worse in the first couple weeks of the season, before their 4 losses so it isn't obvious that they got better by the end of the year.

As for bigger schools, yes, you need to play some big schools because if Athens beats a 5-5 Meigs, it isn't worth as much as when DeSales beats 5-5 New Albany. New Albany brings more points for their size and the fact that their 5 wins were also over bigger schools than Meigs 5 wins. But on the flip side, Athens beating 7-3 Nelsonville-York is still worth more points than a DeSales win over 3-7 St. Charles, as well as DeSales two losses to Westerville Central & Hartley. The year Athens played for the state title DeSales played a much better schedule, but Athens still beat them by 30 points.

Someone might bring up that Athens played Steubenville that year. And Athens won. So did playing Steubenville make Athens better or were they already THAT good and Steubenville just offered a gauge of that?

Big school example - St. Ignatius beat Mentor in the 2nd game last year. Mentor then played 5 teams with sub-.500 records while St. Iggy had already beaten eventual D2 state champ (Hoban) and went on to play St. X & St. Ed, who both ended up with 10+ wins overall. Yet Mentor beat St. Iggy in the rematch on its way to state runner-up. Pick Central had an even worse schedule than Mentor, but wasn't really tested in the playoffs and beat Mentor for the title 56-28.

In short, your schedule has to get you enough points to get in, which means you have to win the right games relative to who others in your region are beating. But playing up or playing a particularly tough schedule doesn't give you any discernable edge when it comes time to play any given opponent, even at playoff time.

[FANOSPORTS]

So, a couple of points. Getting into the playoffs at 6-4 Or whatever doesn't mean you played a great schedule, no matter where it is. In Region 25, four teams with 4-6 wins made the playoffs because there were only four teams in the region that won more than 6 games. Somebody had to fill out the field. The same thing happened in Region 28, where there were only 3 teams with more than six wins and two MAC teams who were 6-4 played for the regional title (Minster won the whole division). Every game Minster lost was to a bigger school in their conference, but did they do well in the postseason BECAUSE they play in a tough conference or did they happen to be the best small school in the state that simply lost more games because they played in a tough conference? I mean, they beat two playoff opponents worse in the first couple weeks of the season, before their 4 losses so it isn't obvious that they got better by the end of the year.

As for bigger schools, yes, you need to play some big schools because if Athens beats a 5-5 Meigs, it isn't worth as much as when DeSales beats 5-5 New Albany. New Albany brings more points for their size and the fact that their 5 wins were also over bigger schools than Meigs 5 wins. But on the flip side, Athens beating 7-3 Nelsonville-York is still worth more points than a DeSales win over 3-7 St. Charles, as well as DeSales two losses to Westerville Central & Hartley. The year Athens played for the state title DeSales played a much better schedule, but Athens still beat them by 30 points.

Someone might bring up that Athens played Steubenville that year. And Athens won. So did playing Steubenville make Athens better or were they already THAT good and Steubenville just offered a gauge of that?

Big school example - St. Ignatius beat Mentor in the 2nd game last year. Mentor then played 5 teams with sub-.500 records while St. Iggy had already beaten eventual D2 state champ (Hoban) and went on to play St. X & St. Ed, who both ended up with 10+ wins overall. Yet Mentor beat St. Iggy in the rematch on its way to state runner-up. Pick Central had an even worse schedule than Mentor, but wasn't really tested in the playoffs and beat Mentor for the title 56-28.

In short, your schedule has to get you enough points to get in, which means you have to win the right games relative to who others in your region are beating. But playing up or playing a particularly tough schedule doesn't give you any discernable edge when it comes time to play any given opponent, even at playoff time.

Good post (We should just leave the MAC out of all discussions on here. They drink the magic water in that conference in all sports, boys & girls).

[Raider6309]

The three top area teams Tri Valley, Zanesville, and Athens all played each other. They did well vs top 10 teams in Ohio any division; Toledo Central Catholic, Trotwood Madison, and Akron Hoban.

[carbon_dated]

The kids who play in the MAC are just incredibly prepared for success at the varsity level. All the schools are relatively close. Whenever I talk with fans, parents or players from schools in that conference it's so much different than along the riverfront.
They'd honestly rather win their conference than the state title, but the state title is simply icing on any conference cake.
Almost makes ya wish you grew up on that side of the state. It's flat as a pancake, but boy do they love sports more than any other area.

[MasterOfNone]

I think to a point schedule strength does have an effect on how successful a team may be in the postseason. But I think the biggest factor that goes into determining how successful a team is in the postseason is what region they are placed in, especially for schools in this area. Waverly is a great example of that. They are placed in Division IV Region 16, which is a brutal region consisting of mostly Cincinnati and Dayton area schools. The past two season the Tigers have been able to make the playoffs, one year even hosting. The teams that they are having to face are just too much for them. This is no excuse, just simply stating facts. Every once in awhile we will have an area team who is able to compete and beat schools from the Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, and Cleveland areas, but it is rare.
But if Waverly were to have been placed in region 15 rather than 16, the Tigers may have true hopes of making it out of the region. Just this season, they have already beat 3 of the top 8 teams in region 15. It is just a shame that some local area teams don't even truly have a chance to win a playoff game because of how things are divided out. But at the end of the day, it is what it is and you have to go out and compete no matter what. I guess a positive out of having to face teams like that is it gives the kids and coaches a reason to push even harder to be the best they can be.

[LICKING COUNTY FAN]

I think it helps a lot.
Especially come playoff time.
Without looking anything up, I believe teams, who travel out of their area for some non league games, fair better.
The M.A.C. (Coldwater,St Henry and those teams) might be the biggest exception to this.

[efarns]

Every year, Federal Hocking plays playoff teams like Trimble and Waterford. Yet, they have not won a playoff game.

On the other hand, Trimble plays weak teams like Federal Hocking, but win playoff games.

I think the strength of schedule card is overplayed.

[Tjhtygeverve]

I really dont think it matters. I think it helps with situations but if you are talented enough and are well coached I think you will make it through. Does it make your skills better, I dont think so, so I dont think it makes you better.

It’s very very difficult to win the state with 5 games involved in doing so. It truly takes many things, which most have been discussed. A little luck is also needed!

[Burgfan/grad85]

Ofcourse it does!!!

[Bozo]

No doubt!
But you still have to get in the playoffs. Not too tough!