A very serious weather situation developing (BLIZZARD ?)

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:19 am

This is the single most difficult forecast I have ever had to make. Confidence is not high. This is a very complex and changing situation. So I am going to try to make sense of this.

A low pressure system develops tomorrow over North Texas and moves into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow night. At the same time another low pressure center develops off the east coast of Florida and moves up the east coast. These have the potential to combine and create blizzard conditions Saturday night and Sunday over parts of the Northern Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. If you recal, the blizzard of 1978 featured 2 storms clashing head on right over Ohio. This time it appears two storms may come very close to a collision over PA. That would throw heavy snow and wind back into Ohio. Any shift in the track of these storms throw the whole thing off. So tonight I am going to focus mainly on the first storm and leave Late Saturday night and Sunday questionable.

Precipitation develops Saturday. There could be significant ice accumulations over Central Ohio through Saturday evening.

County by County Forecast.

Franklin, Licking, Knox, Pickaway.

Friday Night...Increasing clouds. Lows around 26.

Saturday...Snow and sleet developing in the morning. Freezing rain, sleet and rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation likely. Highs around 32.

Saturday night...Freezing rain or rain in the evening. Snow after midnight. Turning windy. Several inches of snow possible. Ice accumulation likely in the evening. Lows around 21.

Sunday...Windy with a chance of snow. Heavy snowfall possible. Highs around 25. Temperatures falling rapidly during the day.
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Ross, Hocking, Perry, Muskingum, Fairfield, Coshocton, Guernsey, Tuscarawas..

Saturday...Snow, sleet and freezing rain developing in the morning. Freezing rain and rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch. Ice accumulation likely. Highs around 35.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Snow after midnight. Turning windy. Several inches of snow possible. Ice accumulation likely in the evening. Lows around 24.

Sunday...Windy with a chance of snow. Heavy snowfall possible. Highs around 25. Temperatures falling rapidly during the day.
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Pike, Scioto, Jackson, Lawrence, Gallia, Vinton, Athens, Meigs..

Saturday...Rain. A slight chance of freezing rain in the morning. Highs around 40.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Snow after midnight. Turning windy. Several inches of snow possible. Lows around 27.

Sunday...Windy with a chance of snow. Several inches of snow possible. Highs around 28. Temperatures falling rapidly during the day.

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Morgan, Washington, Noble, Monroe, Belmont..

Saturday...Rain. A slight chance of freezing rain or sleet. Highs around 38.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Snow after midnight. Turning windy. Several inches of snow possible. Lows around 25.

Sunday...Windy with a chance of snow. Heavy snowfall possible. Highs around 27. Temperatures falling rapidly during the day.

kantuckyII · Post by **kantuckyII** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:48 am

This is the single most difficult forecast I have ever had to make.

wow, I wouldn't want to be you right now, you have a lot of pressure on yourself! ;-)

I remember a big huge snow fell in 78 or so. It snowed so hard that night. I have my little green VW bug with snow tires out half the night playing in it. That thing could go where 4 wheel drive trucks could only think about going.

Anyway, back to the storm, it was thundering and lighting, I had never seen that before that night, that is, lighting and thunder in a snow storm

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:58 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif

As I just told my fiancee while she was half paying attention. Just to see something like this on a computer model.
Even if it doesnt materialize. It is awesome to look at !
I always wondered how current technology would have handled 1950 and 1978.
I am not saying this is going to be like that. but this looks explosive.

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:01 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

kantuckyII · Post by **kantuckyII** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:09 am

Well, as a guy who likes to fish and like more guys who do, I pay a lot of attention to the weather that other people might not, especially in the spring. I'm very impressed with how much more accurate forecast seem to be now, especially in that crazy spring time than say 30 years ago. Cold fronts, predicted five days in advance, materialize just like they say most of the time. It's pretty wild

pretty active weather fronts there on the maps it appears.

There's two exhange students who are going to our church now, one is from Tailand, the other is from Brazil. Neither had seen snow till last week in their lives before. Brazil, where one is at, is pretty nice weather year around, mid-70's to low 80's but the kid from Tailand, his home town the average temp is like 93 in the winter, 98 in the summer. He told me this past Sunday that he doesn't like this weather anymore. I think he's really going to get a taste of it soon too

mstangmom · Post by **mstangmom** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 7:22 am

NLP it's funny I got up this morning, well about 20 min ago, I slept in YEA.

Anyways I come downstairs and hubby goes, have you heard what they are saying about the weather
I go Yep.
he said this is what weather bug is sayings
I said I can get you a better forecast than that
He says from where
I said from SEOP
He says where do they get their weather from
I says NLP, he the most accurate weatherman I have seen my whole life.

then I showed him how you predicted the last snow. now he is hooked on you forecast.

Bad thing is now I got to get everything ready, Kerosene, propane all the keep warm survival stuff. see around here our electric, phone and all the lines are STILL only spliced together from the 2004 ice storm. so we are just waiting for them all to snap again.

Post by **noreply66** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 7:34 am

Watched all three Columbus stations last night and three different reports

Runner · Post by **Runner** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 7:42 am

noreply66 wrote:Watched all three Columbus stations last night and three different reports

Forget about those Columbus stations.

Just stay tuned to WNLP out of New Lexington :lol:

mstangmom · Post by **mstangmom** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 7:43 am

WNLP is the most accurate and updates us often

Regulator · Post by **Regulator** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:02 am

How many of these topics are there going to be on one page?

My philosophy, if it snows it snows.

:lol:

mstangmom · Post by **mstangmom** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:12 am

he posts one to inform us in advance that there might be a storm, so we can make plans.

he posts one mid week to let us know of changes to the original, so if we have to change our planes.

he posts one that is 98% accurate, so we can prepare for things with ourselves and our kids.

then he will post one that gives us the actual details and almost minute by minute updates as the storm is happening, so we can laugh at the weathermen who can't even predict when they got to go to the batheroom let alone the weather. and they get paid for it, NLP does it because he loves it.

We love our weather man, we know what is happening and when with the weather unlike when we watch the news and have no clue.

Regulator · Post by **Regulator** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:34 am

I am going to add mine.

Tomorrow it might rain or it might snow depending on the temperature.

Tomorrow night, it will rain or snow, maybe.

Sunday, it will snow, maybe with a chance of accumulation of 1 inch to 10 inches, depending on where you live.

Philly · Post by **Philly** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:18 pm

Regulator, Yourweather report sounds pretty dependable!!

kantuckyII · Post by **kantuckyII** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:19 pm

Regulator wrote:How many of these topics are there going to be on one page?

My philosophy, if it snows it snows.

what? you wanta be caught without bread in a big snowstorm?!

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:36 pm

Everything is shifting slightly north and west. This could be more rain/mix and less snow for Central and SE Ohio. 12 to 18 inches of snow from Findlay to Cleveland.

:evil:

All of southeast ohio is now under a flood watch.

kantuckyII · Post by **kantuckyII** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:47 pm

don't you feel too badly, you'll reign white death and icy destruction down on us here too one day soon, you just keep trying

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:53 pm

Yeah. I have an uncle who lives in Marion, Ohio. I should call him and tell him to get ready to be glazed by a half inch of ice and then a foot of snow and wind. Imagine the power outages ? I am glad the really bad stuff is narrowly going to miss us it appears.

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 3:14 pm

I said last night that I projected tomorrows storm to track from Ripley, WV to Pennsboro, WV. I also said that a 30-50 mile shift in this track would change the entire forecast. It now appears the low will track from near Gallipolis to Marietta.

This pushes the snow and ice further north and west. Giving most of our area heavy rain changing over to a period of lighter snow. The Blizzard Conditions will be around Cleveland, Erie and Buffalo.

more later.

ManitouDan · Post by **ManitouDan** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 3:25 pm

YES it's the great white death run out and buy some milk and TP and rent some vid's MD

mvlnewlex · Post by **mvlnewlex** » Fri Dec 14, 2007 5:28 pm

If your south of Logan and Chillicothe, you get MUD ! There is a Flood Watch for all of Southern Ohio.

Here is my updated forecast.

Pike-Scioto-Lawrence-Jackson-Vinton-Athens-Gallia-
Meigs-Washington-

*FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT*

Saturday...Rain developing. Highs around 40.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Changing to light snow after midnight. Little accumulation. Lows around 30.

Sunday...Periods of snow. Windy. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs around 32.

Ross-Hocking-Perry-Muskingum-Guernsey-

Saturday...Snow, sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch. Light ice accums. Highs around 35.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Lows around 29.

Sunday...Snow. Windy. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Highs around 30.

Noble-Belmont-Monroe

Saturday...Snow, sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation less than an inch. Light ice accums. Highs around 35.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Rain and snow after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows around 29.

Sunday...Snow. Windy. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs around 30.

Pickaway-Fairfield-Licking-Franklin-Coshocton-

Saturday...Snow, sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Rain and freezing rain in the afternoon. Changing to all rain by evening. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Light ice accums. Highs around 35.

Saturday night...Rain in the evening. Snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Lows around 29.

Sunday...Snow. Windy. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 30.