MSL Cardinal/New Hope/Central District D4

[formerfcfan]

Saw that FC will be without 11 players on Saturday, as they’re attending the March for Life in DC. Ouch...

[formerfcfan]

HP 79
W.S. 73

FC 60
FCA 55

BR 60
GCC 44

BU 52
MP 51


Standings
1. Harvest Prep 6-0
2. Fisher Cath 5-1
3. Wellington 5-2
4. Berne Union 4-2
5. Rosecrans 2-4
6. FCA 2-5
7. GCC 2-6
8. Millersport 0-7


FC and HP play the makeup of their first game this coming Thursday in Lancaster. Two big Home games for the Irish back-to-back on Thursday and then Friday vs BU.

FCA looked new and improved this time around. Well-coached as always.

[Snowman]

Saw that FC will be without 11 players on Saturday, as they’re attending the March for Life in DC. Ouch...

Good win for them in this one, even if it was against a struggling Fairfield Christian. I believe they were missing 4 varsity players, including at least one starter, but at least they had their backcourt. How many transfers did they get?

Berne Union squeaked by Millersport. Is BU for real? I'm not saying state ranked, but are they worthy of a top 3 district seed? The Dispatch has 1) FC, 2) Danville, 3) BU, 4) Shekinah Christian in their power poll.

GCC seems to really be struggling, but I'm still not sure too many teams will be seeking them out for the tournament based on their experience and stud forward.

Wellington blew a lead in their final regular season matchup with Harvest Prep, who will now run away with the conference. D3 District tournament will be incredible. Ready, HP, and Northmor are all still undefeated past the midway point of the season and that doesn't even include Wellington or Africentric at the top. Usually strong teams like Newark Catholic and Heath will be fortunate to win more than 1 game.

[formerfcfan]

Wellington beat #1 in the State, D3 Bishop Ready 62-51 at home this Tuesday. Great win for the Jaguars. Another D3 result of note is Amanda-Clearcreek beating Fairfield Union (FU could win a D2 district title in the southeast.)

The notable absences for FC last Saturday were Loy (unofficial MVP of the GCC game) and Frazier, along with two other guards/wings. FC has two transfers: post player and point guard. Of the two, the post player will make the most impact. Not entirely sure how they’ll incorporate the PG, as it’s a full deck in the backcourt.

FCA also has two transfers. The one player led FCA in scoring that game; decent player that could be a Tomlinson-level post if afforded the coaching and development to work on his footwork.

Not entirely sure who else has what. This Friday’s game against will be on WFCO 90.9fm (refreshing909.com) I believe. The game against HP on Thursday I think is getting covered by WLOH. Both stations are easily accessible online and broadcast via the TuneIn Radio application.

Seeds... worthiness... well, BU might get a top-3 seed on the virtue of their record alone. On the merits of their play, sure. We’ll know more after Friday night. Danville is probably the most convincing for the #1 seed at this point, if the win(s) over Highland are of any impression.


Congratulations to Tree of Life for the first place vote in this week’s AP Poll. Can’t wait for the seeding meeting, what with the KMAC contingency arguing that they’re the toughest of the three leagues present (probably true) the MSL teams all having dicked up loss totals courtesy of HP& Wellington, and the MOCAL making the argument for why Shekinah is a top five team (they probably are?) and why Tree of Life should be in the top five as well.

It’s going to be a circus. All three league (contingencies) want the representation at the top, almost as if the coaches across the board could care less about a true, accurate 1-18 seeding. The KMAC has the fewest seats at the table and is figuratively stuck on “North Central OH Island” along with having a top D3 team and Highland as competition; the MOCAL may not be able to afford pushing two teams toward the top (may need to argue Shekinah OR Tree, but not both), they probably don’t want to be thought of as the weakest conference; the MSL only has five seats this year (Rosecrans is East District), but I think Timlin from GCC and Hooper from FCA are “up there” as being very respected within the local D4 community - they may be the two best evaluators in that room. Shekinah Christian also has a good track record of being a fair seeder.

[formerfcfan]

Right now... if I had to make a listing 1-18 and if I were a coach...

1. Danville - lots of respect for Danville. I don't see any reason necessarily to NOT vote them #1, yet...
2. Fisher - are the three games against HP & Wellington pretty much foregone conclusions? Yeah, probably. Still, they play good ball.
3. Shekinah - why not? They always play a good brand of basketball and is probably the best team in the MOCAL.
4. BU - if they beat Fisher this Friday, then top three for sure. Anything quantitative to really suggest BU > SC?
5. Tree of Life - although my heart wants me to put FCA here. Still, best record in the district thus far. ???

uh....

6. FCA - well, they did beat GCC in "The Nest."
7. GCC - I don't really see GCC "truly" being anything lower than an eight, as they have arguably one of the best players in the entire district and a good coach.

uh....

8. Centerburg - really nothing quantitative to support this, but, largest (or second-largest?) in the district... tough-ish league. On the other hand, they've been held to the following point totals: 25, 28, 30, 32, 33, 35 (granted, one of those is against undefeated 'Academy.)
9. uh... Patriot Prep...? - are they the team that lost to 51-52 at home to Newark Catholic (granted, the gym is weird) or are they the team that's averaged 18 points these last three games?

uh.... (noticing a theme here?)

10. Millersport - it's less so that Millersport is 'bad', it's more so that Millersport only has SIX varsity players that can play a whole game due to the JV game cutting into the bench.
11. so... Northside Christian?
12. Granville Christian?

13-18, I guess the order doesn't matter but...

13. Cardington
14. Delaware Christian
15. Ridgedale???
16. Madison Christian
17. Gahanna Christian
18. Cristo Rey

[Chieftain2009]

Here's how the dispatch coaches poll has the D4 Central:

1. Fisher Catholic
2. Danville
3. Berne Union
4. Shekinah Christian

I like reading the AP poll, but let's be realistic, the Coaches Poll is much more accurate than the AP. But, the AP state poll has a couple teams from the Central:

Berne Union (6th)
Tree of Life (8th)

Of course, the majority of people in the AP poll just vote on record and name recognition.

[Snowman]

Spot on Chieftain. And just a fantastic breakdown formerfcfan. As I've said before, I catch a lot of MOCAL games so I have a pretty good feel for that conference, but others in the area I'm not so knowledgeable about and really appreciate your insight.

Regarding coaches seeding, I had no idea it was that bad. I know earlier you mentioned the MOCAL politics and I know last year the northern teams voted themselves about 10 spots higher than they should have, but I guess I didn't realize there was that much bias that went into it. I'm sure some of it is just ignorance or inability to find information as well.

As far as the MOCAL "contingency" goes, it will be interesting to see how they seed each other. Like you I think Tree of Life and Shekinah Christian should probably be no lower than 7, but I can't imagine the rest of the MOCAL voting themselves very high. The MOCAL 3 years ago was the worst conference that I've ever seen and they have improved since then, but they aren't on the level of most MSL teams. Of the seven teams, only two have winning records in conference play (https://www.mocalathletics.com/boysbasketball) and it's not like they have many strong wins out of conference. That being said, they all have strengths, so a potential upset might take place in the right matchup.

I've talked with a fair amount of opposing parents and some opposing coaches, so I'll try my hand at seeding teams as well (assuming no major injuries). Perhaps I can provide some more info on MOCAL teams and we can piece this together a little better:


Tier 1 - Favorites
Probably won't lose to a lower tier except a small chance from Tier 2

1) Fisher Catholic - strong start, schedule is tough enough, good depth, excellent guard play, and with a couple transfers they have more depth, including in the post. I saw that GCC game and they looked fantastic.
2) Danville - I don't know a ton about them, but their schedule is one of the toughest in D4 and they'll be more of a mystery than most teams in the area. They have a stud scorer, solid size, and experience.


Tier 2 - Contenders
Might be able to upset Tier 1, but could also lose to Tiers 3 or 4 under the right circumstances

3) Berne Union - Toughest part of their schedule is yet to come, but obviously they are off to a great start and will have faced some top level teams thanks to their conference, so nothing should phase them in the tournament.
4) Shekinah Christian - One of the best D4 big men in the area plays for them. Dispatch leaders say he averages about 16 points and 11 rebounds (top 5 in area) while shooting 63%. Talked with a parent and heard he nearly had triple-doubles with 9 blocks against Delaware Christian and Bishop Ready. Not sure if they've ever gotten a transfer, but they had two players who started last year that were injured to start the year and just recently returned.

Random note about Shekinah that the same parent also told me: They have several non-OHSAA games but they aren't cupcakes like Liberty Christian or Genoa Christian. They have a 3-day tournament this week against 11-3 Calvary Christian, an unknown team, and if they make the finals they would likely play a 21-3 team from Illinois. They also play New Hope Christian, who we've already established is a very solid team. Non-OHSAA games don't count toward the seedings, right? So regardless of how those go, that's 4 less games to win that other teams could pass them with. If a coach knows nothing about a team and sees one team is 14-8 and another is 12-6, I'd have to think they would look at the total wins and go by that.

5) Tree of Life - Okay I admit this could be off. They might be #3 or they might be #10. Main question is whether they are improving as the season progresses, because most teams in the district seem to be getting much better as the season moves on. They have a young team and have a very soft schedule. We should have a better idea next week because they play Shekinah on Tuesday. Last game they were down 7 to 0-10 Gahanna Christian after the first quarter and were only up 1 in the 4th. They were losing to Northside Christian twice in the second half this year. Granville Christian (minus their only good player) was beating them 5-0 after the first quarter. A bad Madison Christian team was tied in second half. So it seems like they start slow, make good adjustments, and finish strong. That might work in the MOCAL but if they get down big early to FC or Danville, I don't think they could come back.


Tier 3 - Upset Specialists
Doubtful they could beat Tier 1, but I don't think anyone in Tier 2 should be seeking them out.

6) Fairfield Christian - If they got transfers as you said, that really helps their depth. And Collins can go off at any time and carry a team to victory. I could definitely see them beating any Tier 2 teams if they are as improved as you say.
7) Grove City Christian - Tomlinson, coaching, and pride would be enough to make them a threat.


Tier 4 - Dropoff - But Still Need a Gameplan Against Them
Might lose 8 out of 10 times to a higher tier, but they have strengths that must be taken away.

8) Northside Christian - Hear me out on this one: Northside starts a 20 ppg 6'5" athletic forward, a 6'4" athletic guard, a 6'7" 300lb center, and brings a 6'3" active center and 6'2 guard off the bench. They are gigantic. However, they have trouble bringing the ball up the court and only have one average shooter, so their weaknesses are glaring. They beat Horizon Science (7-5 DIII team) but lost to International (their first win in 2 seasons). So Northside can be really good, but can also be really bad. I think with time to gameplan they will likely be beat, but with that size you just never know.
9) Millersport - Might be seeded lower due to their record, but with Pervis and some other solid players they still need to be taken seriously.
10) Granville Christian - Admittedly this is if their star is healthy. Their best player, Landon Sanford, is the best player that I've seen in the conference this season. The game I saw he probably had 27 points on 5 threes and had nearly all of their assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks. He's basically Lebron for his team with very little help. Unfortunately for them, he had a concussion earlier this year and just missed his last game as well. Granville has 7 players total. Total. Total! So if Sanford is out then they should probably be a bottom 5 seed. But they could surprise people if he stays healthy. No team could change as much as Granville Christian when I make my end of season projections.


Tier 5 - Uh...They Were Good Last Year
Speculation based solely on sheer enrollment, but could be WAY off. Might need to switch with Tier 6.

11) Centerburg - Like you said, they have the largest enrollment of a D4 school and were a good D3 team last year before losing everyone (including their coach). They do have a respectable schedule though and I'd bet they won't be someone you can just coast through.
12) Cardington - Lost 8 of their top 9 last year but the one they return is good. Otherwise they've really struggled, so I'm sort of rating them here based on their schedule and the fact that they have the numbers to have a freshman team while others can't even field a JV team. They squeaked by a 1-11 Ridgedale team this week.

Tier 6 - Might Surprise Someone
These teams were shorthanded earlier in the year and should play better than their record.

13) Delaware Christian - Kept it close both times that they played Shekinah, but have put up some real stinkers as well. They had two starters injured earlier in the year who are healthy. Most importantly, they got a transfer from Marysville who is now their best player and is eligible for the rest of the season. They toughened up their schedule so they should be ready come tournament time.
14) Gahanna Christian - Perhaps it's a little MOCAL bias since they haven't won a game yet, but they have 4 decent players. So far this season they've played 1 game when all were healthy (or not suspended) and they were tied with Tree of Life in the 4th quarter, so I'm curious to see how they finish the season, especially since they only have 1 senior and some of those younger players should be more comfortable by the end of the year.
15) Patriot Prep - Bit of a wild card. They did have that one close game against Newark Catholic and have faced a tough schedule, but I can't imagine them beating a well-prepared team away from their NBA-sized home court. According to the Dispatch, they lost to Millersport by 32 once and beat them the next time. That 18 PPG average over their last 3 games was against some really tough competition at least.

Tier 7 - Don't Think They'll Win a Tournament Game
Started slow and don't seem to be improving.
16) Madison Christian - I've seen them alot and I just can't see them competing with a top 10 team. They are 6-9 but dig deeper and it's hard to find a good win (most were against depleted opponents). They lost 6 in a row before beating Granville Christian without Sanford. Have only scored 40+ points once in their last 7 games.
17) Ridgedale - Bad last year and lost their only two scorers. 0-11 vs. OHSAA opponents. They have a game against Delaware Christian upcoming as well as Patriot Prep, so perhaps the bottom of the Distinct can get a bit of clarity.
18) Cristo Rey - Blown out by two MOCAL schools. Once they get more established I'm sure they'll be more of a threat in future years, although that might be Division 3 by then.

[Snowman]

Well I think I was partially right. FC hung with HP way longer than expected, then destroyed BU not long after. Danville beat (but not convincingly) 4-9 Fredricktown after getting blown out by 9-4 Lucas. I’m not saying FC could beat a team like Mansfield St. Peter’s, but they are clearly the best team in D4 Central District IMO and should at at least be getting votes in the AP poll. Someone with knowledge of Danville might be able to convince me otherwise, but based on what I know I’ll put FC there.

In the MOCAL, Delaware Christian made me look smart by playing better than their record and winning big against Tree of Life. Tree then stunk up the joint against East Knox. BU and Tree should be out of things in the AP poll going forward at least.

Wanting to see how Shekinah did to wrap up the top 5 area teams based on 270 hoops, I see that they beat 15-5 Calvary Christian, blew out a team from out of area, and blew a 4th quarter lead to lose to a 21-3 team from Illinois. Shekinah is now 11-4 with big MOCAL games against Tree and Northside that could give them at least a share of the conference title this week. They at least seem the part of a top 5 team in the district, although we’ll have to see how they do this week to solidify that projection.

[petesweaty]

What is New Hope's record?

[Snowman]

According to the Dispatch, New Hope is 10-6. Their schedule consists of lots of very hard games (Ready, Hartley, Wellington, Vinton County) and very easy games (Gahanna Christian, Cristo Rey, Patriot Prep). I'll be interested to see how they schedule next year now that their core group of guys will have graduated, although they do get a ton of homeschool kids from what I've heard.

In the MSL, Fisher Catholic lost big to Rosecrans. Any insight as to what happened? Maybe that loss will humble them a bit and keep them hungry instead of just assuming they are the top team in the area.

Berne Union is inexplicably still ranked 8th in the AP poll, at least until this week when they lost to Harvest Prep 83-29. Grove City Christian just beat Fairfield Christian, which surprised me a bit, so I'll be interested to see who wins that matchup with BU on Saturday. BU then has a quick turnaround and faces Rosecrans Monday, Wellington Wednesday, and Fairfield Christian on the Friday. They finish with Wellington again and Rosecrans again before facing a school from Kentucky. Will the tough part of the schedule help them get ready for the tournament or hurt their confidence?

Something I don't like is that the seeding takes place next weekend (records are due on Friday morning, 2/8, I believe). That's a good 3-5 games not included in the rankings. Why not just try to put the easy part of the schedule first and save the tough games for the last two weeks of the year if they won't be included? Danville plays GCC on 2/10, which is after records are due. Wouldn't that game help coaches (at least who actually take seeding seriously) get a better idea of how the northern teams stack up since most don't see them much?

New attempt at top 4 (I don't even know if anyone else in D4 is even over .500)

1) Fisher Catholic (9-6): Some good wins and only one bad loss, although even that is to a respectable team. They've been really good at times, so I'll cut them some slack for one off night.

2) Danville (9-6): They've really played well at times and won (or at least hung in) some tough matchups. They are also bigger than most schools in the district. Wouldn't surprise me if they won the District.

3) Berne Union (11-4): In my eyes, BU will show who they really are these next two weeks. They might have been saved a few losses in time for seeding, which could help their district seed, but if they show they can win in this tough week I'll keep them at 3. If they fall apart then I'll drop them to 4.

4) Shekinah Christian (12-4): Just beat Tree of Life pretty bad and by looking at the scores, they seem to keep their opponents low scoring. Then again, 9 wins have been in the MOCAL, two were non-OHSAA, and the other was International. Would BU also be 12-4 if that was their schedule? Shekinah has beat the teams they should and lost to the teams they should. Hard to tell, but if BU has a bad week I'd probably put Shekinah at 3.


Other MOCAL note: Landon Sanford just scored 42 against Delaware Christian. He's probably the most talented player in the area that nobody knows about. Hope he gets some district recognition this year.

[icanpickem]

Danville is a streaky team. They only have one consistent scorer(Durbin). He's only been held under 20 once or twice this season and avg. is 25ppg. They have 3 other guys that can get 20 in a game and then the next game have 4 to 6.

Seeing as Danville only plays 5 D4 schools in the regular season(centerburg, Cardington, GCC, Lucas and Del. Christian) they'll be the most battle tested come tourney time. (centerburg and cardington are usually D3)

FYI, GCC/Danville game was scheduled for opening weekend but was rescheduled due to Danville making final four in football.

[formerfcfan]

FC had a horrid first quarter against Rosecrans. Down 5-12 to a very well-coached Rosecrans, they clawed back to make it 31-35 after three. Then they had a bad start to the fourth, with foul trouble and poor passing, and BR widened the gap thanks to FC being at 10 fouls early in the fourth.

Credit to Rosecrans and Coach Rock.

[Hawks1112]

I'm from east district,east district winner plays Central district winner in Athens the regional semi finial,we have River who is third or second in the rankings,and then we a very very good Strasburg team that isn't even rank at 15-1,then my Hiland Hawks at 13-5 are playing real well right now, have a big game this Saturday against River and only lost to Strasburg by 2,who ever comes out of the east district, should be the favorite in the regional semi finial,now that the big three in the central district have move up to d-3

[Snowman]

Any idea what to make of the MSL Cardinal? Obviously HP and Wellington are on top and FC is the next best team, but what about after that? GCC just beat FCA and BU in the same week, but FCA also lost to Millersport. They've pretty much all beat each other. How would the division be ranked in terms of potential for the District Tournament?

[formerfcfan]

FC beat Granville Christian tonight. It wasn't a dominating win, per se, although FC played with a decently comfortable lead (~six points) the whole time. Sort of a sloppy effort on offense.

Neat article below on FC's Keenan Swindells.

http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/st ... 088516001/

[Chieftain2009]

D4 Central bracket:

http://www.cdab.org/sports/bk/boys/2018/bd4brkt18.pdf

[formerfcfan]

Two quick thoughts:

• BU opting into the FC side. Well if you insist, Matt! (BU coach is former girls basketball coach at FC who was non-renewed three years ago.)

• GCC apparently jump onto Shekinah.

[Snowman]

Definitely surprised BU chose the FC side of the bracket. Maybe they are happy to settle for a district semifinal appearance and figured that half would be easier to get there.

GCC going after the MOCAL. I wonder if it has anything to do with Shekinah playing at Jonathan Alder since their court isn’t long enough. Still strange that GCC chose not to host at least one game. That opened the door for what has to be the first time Granville Christian has ever hosted a tournament game, at least in recent memory.

Also odd that the 4, 5, 6, and 8 are all in the same sectional. Danville has an easy path to district semis, so if anyone from that difficult sectional can advance to the finals then they will have earned it.

[formerfcfan]

I wonder where Granville Christian will be hosting their Round 2 game. Anyone know if the Fifth Street Gym (where GCA plays their home games) is 84x50, or 74x42? If it is the latter, then I'm pretty sure it will need to be hosted somewhere such as Granville or Newark Catholic. I believe when GCA played at the Bryn Du, that court was 74x42.

I would guess that GCC wanted to not play in the half that had BU and FC. Not that I think they were scared of the two teams, but they probably wouldn't want to play either of them a third time (probably gets annoying / old.)

Good observation on the 4, 5, 6, and 8 sectional. It's also, obviously, in the same side of the bracket as the one with the #2 seed, Danville. So one half has 2, 4, 5, 6 and 8 and the other has 1, 3 and 7. Everyone (essentially) wanted to stay away from FC?

I guess in defense of BU, maybe it's not so much thinking that FC won't win a third time (although it happened last year, FC swept BU 3-0 among regular season and district) rather than already knowing who you're going to play. Lancaster/Sugar Grove is pretty far from Danville, so that's a long scouting drive. At least with FC, you've scouted them before and know what they'll throw at you. And, of course, BU coach probably didn't draw into Fisher's side of the bracket with the mentality that district semi-finals versus the Irish is where the road definitely ends.


Regarding the paths to the district semis, I'm somewhat wondering if Danville has the easier path to district semi's than Fisher. That's what I'm thinking initially, but any guesses as to how GCA could stack up against Centerburg? Danville probably has too diverse of scoring opportunities for Millersport (assuming they beat DC) to be of any threat on that road.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Hey, does anyone know what the result of the Centerburg and Delaware Christian game was last night, Saturday the 10th? It wasn't phoned into the Dispatch and while the Centerburg Boys Basketball account on Twitter announced the game on the day of, there was no result posted. (The account also tweets out victories for the JR High team as well, so no news is... bad news???) What is the issue with Centerburg this year? I know we talked about them a little bit up thread, and it hurts that Ross Ryan is at Pickerington North now, but they have been struggling to score the ball this year! I realize the competition level is generally high, eg Northmor and Ready, but the ball isn't finding its way into the hoop.

I'm looking at the bracket, thinking of any upset possibilities. Maybe GCA/Centerburg > FC in round 3? FCA > BU in round 3? Winner of the "Sectional of Death" (4, 5, 6 and 8) over Danville in district semi's?

[Snowman]

Couldn't find the Delaware Christian and Centerburg score either, although I would think Centerburg would win since they are likely more imposing team physically.

I've been to Granville Christian's gym for a middle school game. It's regulation size. There is pretty much no parking but otherwise I loved it. The gym was restored from it's glory days and has a second floor balcony hanging over all sides of the court. It was quiet during my trip (because middle school) but some parents said that it got rocking during their first high school game.

I am a little surprised GCC didn't want FCA and BU because they've played them well in their recent matchups. Since there are several lower seeds matched up together, I would think that GCC had several open slots to pick from but I guess they wanted to know their opponent and play on a neutral court. Maybe they just wanted the known opponent and didn't want to potentially get stuck with a Centerburg or Cardington. Also curious that GCC chose the Danville side seeing as they just lost to Danville by 18 last weekend. It's funny because I thought Shekinah might play GCC/FCA/BU in the second round and some MOCAL team in the first round, but it's the other way around.

Path to the district semis will be easy for both Danville and FC, but I'd lean toward FC having the easier route. Danville has Patriot Prep in the first round. Now Patriot is bad don't get me wrong, but they've at least shown a little bit of potential (nearly beat Newark Catholic and beat Millersport), so I see them as having a pretty wide range of how they play. Ridgedale is awful so I don't think Danville will have any issues with them whatsoever. FC is the other way around in that they have the traditionally easier game first with Cristo Rey, who has been pretty stead all year (they did beat Patriot FWIW), but Gahanna Christian has shown a few flashes for FC's second rounder. Either way both teams should have no difficulty advancing.

For the sectional of doom, I would think whoever wins with GCC and Shekinah would win the second round game. Shekinah plays Tree of Life this Thursday but they blew them out the first time. Of course, Shekinah also blew out Northside the first time and only won the second matchup by 1, but Shekinah seems to have been more consistent and GCC has been playing well of late.

For the upsets, I'd think BU losing in sectional finals is a real possibility. Maybe if Shekinah makes it they could beat Danville, but they need to get there first. FC did only beat GCA by single digits last week and Centerburg is sort of unknown but a big school, so I suppose that would be as good of an upset pick as any. Upsets are so difficult this year because everyone in the division is so even.