Region 15 Playoff Watch

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svac83
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Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by svac83 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:10 pm

sT. CLAIRSVILLE1. st.clairsville: Red devils far and away number 1 seed here. they already have a guaranteed minimum of 19.85 points. A win over 2-6 john f. kennedy and a carrolton win agains 0-8 minerva, meadowbrook win against 2-6 cambridge, indian creek win against 3-5 edison, and a harrison central win against 0-8 buckeye local would bring there point total to 23.40. only one other team indian valley at 23.45 even has a max point total this high. The red devils will probalby actuall finish at about 28.00 and clearly by a long way be number 1 seed.

INDIAN VALLEY:2,3, 4 indian valley : The braves hava a guaranteed minimum 14.95 computer points. the following points should also be pretty secure. they should beat tuscarwurus valley 4-4 and claymont 1-7, sandy valley 7-1 should beat 3-5 malvern, 5-2 buckeye trail should beat tuscarwurus central catholic 2-5, and garaway 7-1 should beat 4-4 tuscawurus valley this would bring there total to 19.10 computer points. manchester 6-2 could add points by beating loudonville 4-4 0.4 points and CVCA 5-3 0.5 points, buckeye trail 5-2 may beat east clinton 0.35 points also all other points would be a reach.
total points 19.10 to 20.35 points

BLOOM CARROLL3,4,5 bloom carroll has a guaranteed minimum of 12.95 computer points: the bulldogs should easily add the following points. They should beat 3-5 fairfield union and 1-7 logan elm. Fairfield union should beat 1-7 liberty union. this would bring there computer point total to 16.394 points. lakewood 1-7may beat utica 1-7 0.505 points, highland 7-1 may beat east knox 7-1 0.404 points, highland 7-0 may beat 8-0 northmor 0.404 points and amanda clearcreek 7-1 may beat hamilton twp 4-4 0.101 computer points. all other points would be a reach. so total points should range from 16.349 to17.763 points.

JOHN GLENN:4, 5.6 john glenn has a guaranteed minimum of 10.5 computer points. the muskies should be able to handle new lexington 5-3 and crooksville 2-6, they should also be able to depend on maysville 4-4 to beat coshocton 1-7. this would give them 15.10 computer points. they may also get points from cambridge 2-6 beating 4-4 riverview 0.5 points and west muskingham 0-8 may beat 0-8 monroe central 0.35 points. this would give a total range of 15.10 to 15.95 points

GALLIA ACADEMY:2,3,4,5,6. gallia academy has a guaranteed minimum of 14.25 points. the blue devils should be able to handle south point 0-8, and then they would have the points between south point and portsmouth guaranteed this would bring the blue devil total to 15.15 the blue devils may gain points from meigs 2-6 beating 3-5 wellston 0.45 points, meigs 2-6 beating alexander 4-4 0.45 points, river valley 0-8 beating south gallia 2-6 0.35 computer points and 4-4 coal grove beating rock hill 2-6 0.10 computer points. This would bring total points to 15.15 points to 16.45 points.

if the blue devils beat 6-2 ironton would be worth 3.65 computer points and would make blue devil total between 18.80 points and 20.10 points.

LICKING VALLEY:2,3,4,5,6,7,8, out licking valley has a guaranteed minimum of 10.5768 points. the panthers really have no guaranteed future points. even though them and licking heights has the same record i thing they beat 6-2 licking heights 3.832 points, northridge 2-6 may beat utica 1-7 0.101 points, newark catholic 2-6 may beat heath 3-5 0.0505 points and newark catholic 2-6 may beat northridge 2-6 0.0505 points. this would leave there total points from 10.5768 points to 14.6108 points
this team could also beat granville 7-1 this game would beat 4.792 points. so if they beat granville and lost to licking heights they would be in 10.5768 to 15.5768 range.

if they beat both granville and licking heights they would be in the 19.4028 range

FAIRLAND 5,6,7,8, out fairland dragons have a guaranteed minimum of 8.0621 points. fairland shoud be able to rely on the follwing. they should be able to depend on athens 7-1 to beat river valley 0-8 and nelsonville york 4-4. so they should finish with a minimum of 9.12 points. they have a good chance of beating both 4-4 chesapeake and 4-4 coal grove. if they beat coal grove 4-4 2.622 points if they beat chesapeake 4-4 2.571 points. so if they beat chesapeake and lose to coal grove they would be at 11.691 points. if they beat coal grove and lose to chespeake they would be at 11.742 points. if they beat both chesapeake and coal grove be at 14.313 points

UNIOTO:5,6,7,8, out unioto: minimum of 10.4808 they should be able to make sure they beat piketon 0-8. and they should be able to count on zane trace to be piketon 0-8. this would make there point total 11.385 points. so the question is if they are able to beat huntington 5-3 3.026 points if they do that ther point total would be 14.411 points

PHILO:6,7, 8 out philo: guaranteed minimum 9.10 points. philo should beat 1-7 morgan and new lexington 5-3. this would add 3.75 points this would make total 12.85 points. west muskingham 0-8 may beat monroe central 0-8 0.35 points this would 13.20 total points


OTHER TEAMS STILL MATHMATICALLY ALIVE



Beergogglebluez
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Re: REGION 15 PLAYOFF BREAKDOWN THROUGH WEEK 8

Post by Beergogglebluez » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:18 pm

You think fairland still gets in at 4-4 right now? I hope they do. I’m not familiar with there region.



svac83
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Re: REGION 15 PLAYOFF BREAKDOWN THROUGH WEEK 8

Post by svac83 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:12 am

Fairland needs to win last 2 to get in and then they will only be in because they beat athens who should finish season 9-1



svac83
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Re: REGION 15 PLAYOFF BREAKDOWN THROUGH WEEK 8

Post by svac83 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:14 am

svac83 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:10 pm
sT. CLAIRSVILLE1. st.clairsville: Red devils far and away number 1 seed here. they already have a guaranteed minimum of 19.85 points. A win over 2-6 john f. kennedy and a carrolton win agains 0-8 minerva, meadowbrook win against 2-6 cambridge, indian creek win against 3-5 edison, and a harrison central win against 0-8 buckeye local would bring there point total to 23.40. only one other team indian valley at 23.45 even has a max point total this high. The red devils will probalby actuall finish at about 28.00 and clearly by a long way be number 1 seed.

INDIAN VALLEY:2,3, 4 indian valley : The braves hava a guaranteed minimum 14.95 computer points. the following points should also be pretty secure. they should beat tuscarwurus valley 4-4 and claymont 1-7, sandy valley 7-1 should beat 3-5 malvern, 5-2, and garaway 7-1 should beat 4-4 tuscawurus valley this would bring there total to 18.75 computer points. manchester 6-2 could add points by beating loudonville 4-4 0.4 points and CVCA 5-3 0.5 points, buckeye trail 5-2 may beat east clinton 0.35 points also all other points would be a reach.
total points 18.75 to 20.00 points

BLOOM CARROLL3,4,5 bloom carroll has a guaranteed minimum of 12.95 computer points: the bulldogs should easily add the following points. They should beat 3-5 fairfield union and 1-7 logan elm. Fairfield union should beat 1-7 liberty union. this would bring there computer point total to 16.394 points. lakewood 1-7may beat utica 1-7 0.505 points, highland 7-1 may beat east knox 7-1 0.404 points, highland 7-0 may beat 8-0 northmor 0.404 points and amanda clearcreek 7-1 may beat hamilton twp 4-4 0.101 computer points. all other points would be a reach. so total points should range from 16.349 to17.763 points.

JOHN GLENN:4, 5.6 john glenn has a guaranteed minimum of 10.5 computer points. the muskies should be able to handle new lexington 5-3 and crooksville 2-6, they should also be able to depend on maysville 4-4 to beat coshocton 1-7. this would give them 15.10 computer points. they may also get points from cambridge 2-6 beating 4-4 riverview 0.5 points and west muskingham 0-8 may beat 0-8 monroe central 0.35 points. this would give a total range of 15.10 to 15.95 points

GALLIA ACADEMY:2,3,4,5,6. gallia academy has a guaranteed minimum of 14.25 points. the blue devils should be able to handle south point 0-8, and then they would have the points between south point and portsmouth guaranteed this would bring the blue devil total to 15.15 the blue devils may gain points from meigs 2-6 beating 3-5 wellston 0.45 points, meigs 2-6 beating alexander 4-4 0.45 points, river valley 0-8 beating south gallia 2-6 0.35 computer points and 4-4 coal grove beating rock hill 2-6 0.10 computer points. This would bring total points to 15.15 points to 16.45 points.

if the blue devils beat 6-2 ironton would be worth 3.65 computer points and would make blue devil total between 18.80 points and 20.10 points.

LICKING VALLEY:2,3,4,5,6,7,8, out licking valley has a guaranteed minimum of 10.5768 points. the panthers really have no guaranteed future points. even though them and licking heights has the same record i thing they beat 6-2 licking heights 3.832 points, northridge 2-6 may beat utica 1-7 0.101 points, newark catholic 2-6 may beat heath 3-5 0.0505 points and newark catholic 2-6 may beat northridge 2-6 0.0505 points. this would leave there total points from 10.5768 points to 14.6108 points
this team could also beat granville 7-1 this game would beat 4.792 points. so if they beat granville and lost to licking heights they would be in 10.5768 to 15.5768 range.

if they beat both granville and licking heights they would be in the 19.4028 range

FAIRLAND 5,6,7,8, out fairland dragons have a guaranteed minimum of 8.0621 points. fairland shoud be able to rely on the follwing. they should be able to depend on athens 7-1 to beat river valley 0-8 and nelsonville york 4-4. so they should finish with a minimum of 9.12 points. they have a good chance of beating both 4-4 chesapeake and 4-4 coal grove. if they beat coal grove 4-4 2.622 points if they beat chesapeake 4-4 2.571 points. so if they beat chesapeake and lose to coal grove they would be at 11.691 points. if they beat coal grove and lose to chespeake they would be at 11.742 points. if they beat both chesapeake and coal grove be at 14.313 points

UNIOTO:5,6,7,8, out unioto: minimum of 10.4808 they should be able to make sure they beat piketon 0-8. and they should be able to count on zane trace to be piketon 0-8. this would make there point total 11.385 points. so the question is if they are able to beat huntington 5-3 3.026 points if they do that ther point total would be 14.411 points

PHILO:6,7, 8 out philo: guaranteed minimum 9.10 points. philo should beat 1-7 morgan and new lexington 5-3. this would add 3.75 points this would make total 12.85 points. west muskingham 0-8 may beat monroe central 0-8 0.35 points this would 13.20 total points


OTHER TEAMS STILL MATHMATICALLY ALIVE
edited after saturday results



mattash
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Re: REGION 15 PLAYOFF BREAKDOWN THROUGH WEEK 8

Post by mattash » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:49 am

John Glenn may be the team to beat now



outerbanksjake
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by outerbanksjake » Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:55 am

St C won last evening in double ot. Playing without their all everything receiver and kicker they struggled. Soooooo they went with All State 240 rb Brady Kolb. 43 carries, 281 yards and all 6 touchdowns and 2 2pt. Conversions.



Geronimo
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by Geronimo » Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:00 pm

If this was the first week 2 vs 7 Gallia vs Fairland !



BlueLion4Life
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by BlueLion4Life » Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:01 pm

I ran the numbers to see what it would be like if the obvious happened in every game week 10 both for Level 1 points and Level 2 Points. Here's what I came up with.

1. St. Clairsville 28.5PTS
2. Indian Valley 20.1PTS
3. Gallia Academy 19.8PTS
4. Bloom Carroll 17.89PTS
5. John Glenn 15.9PTS
6. Unioto 15.32PTS
7. Licking Valley 14.51PTS
8. Philo 14.2PTS
9. Fairland 14.11PTS


There is also of variance within this region. For instance If Licking Valley loses and Fairland Wins then Fairland would be in. Fairland needs Licking Valley or Philo to lose that's there best option and those two games are the most vulnerable. and of course Fairland would have to win week 10.



svac83
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by svac83 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:52 pm

1. st clairsville number #1 no matter what.

2. indian valley: has a guaranteed minimum of 17.9 points. indian valley should easily beat 1-8 claymont. that will be worth 0.9 points on total garaway 8-1 should beat tuscawurus valley 4-5 this is worth 0.05 final points. sandy valley 8-1 should handle malvern 3-5 0.35 points. manchester 7-2 will be favored to beat CVCA 6-3 0.5 points this would give them a solid 19.7 points. buckeye trail 5-4 could beat east clinton 6-3 0.35 points. and coshocton 1-8 could beat riverview 4-5 worth 0.5 points. total 20.55 points. so total between 19.7 and 20.55 i say minimum 19.2

3. gallia academy guaranteed 18.8 points they better handle south point 0-9. worth 0.45 points. minimum of 19.25 points. now the wild card things. these teams have been bad so hard to call any of them easy. meigs 3-6 could beat alexander 4-5 this would be worth 0.45 points. river valley 0-9 could beat 3-6 south gallia 0.35 points. coal grove could beat rock hill 0.05 points and chesapeake could beat fairland 0.05 points. total of 20.15 points. so toal of between 19.25 and 20.15 i think it will be 19.75 points

4. bloom carroll gauaranteed 15.9247 they should handle logan elm 1-8 worth 1.005 the rest of the rest of there points will be totally conditional so minimum should be 16.9297. amanda clearcreek 8-1 will be favored against 6-3 teays valley 0.606 points highland 8-1 will be in a tussell with northmor 9-0 0.404 points. lakewood 1-8 will be in a tussell with utica 1-8 0.505 points possible total of 18.447 so total should be between 16.9297 and 18.447

5. john glenn minimum 14.25 points they should handle crooksville 2-7 1.35 points giving them 15.60 points. really all other points for them will be toss ups or hard pushes. west muskingham 0-9 may beat monroe central 1-8 0.35 points. the rest of points would be underdogs total 15.95 points so total between 15.60 and 15.95 points.

6. unioto minimum 14.214 points they should handle piketon 1-8 0.955 points a minimum of 15.169 points. they have several possible tossup points. -vinton county 3-6 could beat wellston 3-6 0.454 points adena 7-1 could upset paint valley 9-0 .404 huntington 5-4 could beat zane trace 3-6 0.101 points posiible 16.128 points so between 15.169 and 16.128 most likely 15.270

7. licking valley minimum 10.6273 points . will be in a battle with 6-3 licking heights. most years licking valley is a little bit better team. but this year seem evenly matched. game worth 3.832 points for licking valley they may get 0.0505 by newark catholic beating northridege but that should not matter so with a win 14.5043 points with a loss 10.6273 points

8. fairland guaranteed 11.0884 points. i think fairland 5-4 better team then 5-4 chesapeake but it may be a game. game worth 2.5712 points for the win. athens 8-1 should beat nelsonville york 4-5 0.404 points could get 0.0505 points for coal grove beating rock hill, so with a win fairland should be 14.114 points with a loss 11.5429 points

philo minimum 10.55 points philo 6-3 should beat new lexington 5-4 2.8 points for a total of 13.35 points west muskingham 0-9 will have a chance against monroe central 1-8 0.35 points coshocton 1-8 against river view 5-4 0.50 points total possible 14.20 points

new lexington is mathematically aliveif they would upset philo. unless morgan 1-8 beats sheridan 8-1 and crooksville 2-7 upsets john glenn 6-3 without those 2 upsets ther max total would be 10.35 that will never get them in so they are eliminated.

so here is my cheat sheet.
1. st clairsville
2. gallia acaddemy 19.75
3. indian valley 19.70
4. bloom carroll 17.5357
5 john glenn 15.95
6. unioto 15.27
7. licking valley with a win 14.5043
8. fairland with a win 14.114
philo with a win 13.35 points
fairland with a loss 11.5429
licking valley with a loss 10.6273
philo with a loss 10.55 points

gallia academy and indian valley for 2nd and 3rd seeds will be determined by what happens at several spots friday night.



danicalifornia
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by danicalifornia » Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:06 pm

As a Unioto fan, who knows what we will likely have healthy for Week 11, I'd much rather have to go to Gallia than Indian Valley. I’m not saying anything about their teams, but I’d much rather just drive an hour down 35 than to Gnadenhutten



svac83
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by svac83 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:21 pm

danicalifornia wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:06 pm
As a Unioto fan, who knows what we will likely have healthy for Week 11, I'd much rather have to go to Gallia than Indian Valley. I’m not saying anything about their teams, but I’d much rather just drive an hour down 35 than to Gnadenhutten
I love my devils put would prefer unioto coming to town over licking valley



BlueLion4Life
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Re: Region 15 Playoff Watch

Post by BlueLion4Life » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:48 pm

svac83 wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:52 pm
1. st clairsville number #1 no matter what.

2. indian valley: has a guaranteed minimum of 17.9 points. indian valley should easily beat 1-8 claymont. that will be worth 0.9 points on total garaway 8-1 should beat tuscawurus valley 4-5 this is worth 0.05 final points. sandy valley 8-1 should handle malvern 3-5 0.35 points. manchester 7-2 will be favored to beat CVCA 6-3 0.5 points this would give them a solid 19.7 points. buckeye trail 5-4 could beat east clinton 6-3 0.35 points. and coshocton 1-8 could beat riverview 4-5 worth 0.5 points. total 20.55 points. so total between 19.7 and 20.55 i say minimum 19.2

3. gallia academy guaranteed 18.8 points they better handle south point 0-9. worth 0.45 points. minimum of 19.25 points. now the wild card things. these teams have been bad so hard to call any of them easy. meigs 3-6 could beat alexander 4-5 this would be worth 0.45 points. river valley 0-9 could beat 3-6 south gallia 0.35 points. coal grove could beat rock hill 0.05 points and chesapeake could beat fairland 0.05 points. total of 20.15 points. so toal of between 19.25 and 20.15 i think it will be 19.75 points

4. bloom carroll gauaranteed 15.9247 they should handle logan elm 1-8 worth 1.005 the rest of the rest of there points will be totally conditional so minimum should be 16.9297. amanda clearcreek 8-1 will be favored against 6-3 teays valley 0.606 points highland 8-1 will be in a tussell with northmor 9-0 0.404 points. lakewood 1-8 will be in a tussell with utica 1-8 0.505 points possible total of 18.447 so total should be between 16.9297 and 18.447

5. john glenn minimum 14.25 points they should handle crooksville 2-7 1.35 points giving them 15.60 points. really all other points for them will be toss ups or hard pushes. west muskingham 0-9 may beat monroe central 1-8 0.35 points. the rest of points would be underdogs total 15.95 points so total between 15.60 and 15.95 points.

6. unioto minimum 14.214 points they should handle piketon 1-8 0.955 points a minimum of 15.169 points. they have several possible tossup points. -vinton county 3-6 could beat wellston 3-6 0.454 points adena 7-1 could upset paint valley 9-0 .404 huntington 5-4 could beat zane trace 3-6 0.101 points posiible 16.128 points so between 15.169 and 16.128 most likely 15.270

7. licking valley minimum 10.6273 points . will be in a battle with 6-3 licking heights. most years licking valley is a little bit better team. but this year seem evenly matched. game worth 3.832 points for licking valley they may get 0.0505 by newark catholic beating northridege but that should not matter so with a win 14.5043 points with a loss 10.6273 points

8. fairland guaranteed 11.0884 points. i think fairland 5-4 better team then 5-4 chesapeake but it may be a game. game worth 2.5712 points for the win. athens 8-1 should beat nelsonville york 4-5 0.404 points could get 0.0505 points for coal grove beating rock hill, so with a win fairland should be 14.114 points with a loss 11.5429 points

philo minimum 10.55 points philo 6-3 should beat new lexington 5-4 2.8 points for a total of 13.35 points west muskingham 0-9 will have a chance against monroe central 1-8 0.35 points coshocton 1-8 against river view 5-4 0.50 points total possible 14.20 points

new lexington is mathematically aliveif they would upset philo. unless morgan 1-8 beats sheridan 8-1 and crooksville 2-7 upsets john glenn 6-3 without those 2 upsets ther max total would be 10.35 that will never get them in so they are eliminated.

so here is my cheat sheet.
1. st clairsville
2. gallia acaddemy 19.75
3. indian valley 19.70
4. bloom carroll 17.5357
5 john glenn 15.95
6. unioto 15.27
7. licking valley with a win 14.5043
8. fairland with a win 14.114
philo with a win 13.35 points
fairland with a loss 11.5429
licking valley with a loss 10.6273
philo with a loss 10.55 points

gallia academy and indian valley for 2nd and 3rd seeds will be determined by what happens at several spots friday night.
''

We have pretty similar results, and it just goes to show that minor fluctuations can impact the final rating.



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