Region 19...After week 9 with projections

[Crab's Brother]

Here is what I have for Region 19….
**Disclaimer…I did not figure Columbus Academy’s average as I believe unless they pull a huge upset, they are out.

Here is how it should look as of the end of Week 9
1. Wynford 21.50
2. Valley 20.12
3. Nelsonville 18.53
4. Gran. Hts. 15.32
5. West 15.24
6. Ridgewood 15.10
7. Crestview 15.03
8. Smithville 14.36
9. Hillsdale 14.35
10. Centerburg 12.60
11. Liberty Union 12.22
12. Wheelersburg 11.68


Projections to follow….

[Crab's Brother]

Here is how I am going to project it to finish….

1. Nelsonville 24.65
2. Wynford 23.55
3. Valley 23.15
4. West 19.55
5. Hillsdale 19.40
6. Crestview 18.65
7. Ridgewood 17.45
8. Liberty Union 17.15
9. Grandview Hts 16.02
10. Smithville 15.60
11. Centerburg 14.76
12. Wheelersburg 12.55

Here are what I believe it would look like based on who I have winning.
Here are some key games and how I projected them:
Nelsonville over Athens
Liberty Union over Grandview Heights
Hillsdale over Norwayne
West over Wheelersburg
Ok now for scenarios:

Nelsonville loses….they have 19.9. Bump them to #3 and move Valley and Wynford up a spot each.
Grandview beats LU…they have 19.75 move them up to the #4 spot and they would host West in week 11. LU would be out and then West and everyone below them would drop a spot
Norwayne beats Hillsdale…they finish with 15.55 and they are out. This would get GH back in the #8 spot and bump Crestview and the others up a spot.
Burg beats West…they would total 16.5 and West would fall to 16.10. Burg would jump into the 8 spot and West would be out.

Obviously there are a lot of games that I had to try and make educated guesses on. There are also 4 huge games in this region this week. I have projected this region each of the last 3 weeks and I’m nowhere near 100%. As for the teams truly in the SE area this is what I am going with.
Nelsonville and Valley will host. West and Wheelersburg have a play in game this week. West, assuming a win, become big Liberty Union fans as Grandview Heights would be the only team keeping West from a home game in Week 11.

[buckeyeguy]

So IF ny was to go 9-1 they would still have a good chance to host?

[Crab's Brother]

So IF ny was to go 9-1 they would still have a good chance to host?

Barring some upsets, NY will host win or lose.

[Alitown]

It says on Joe EiteLs page Valley has clinched playoff spot but he hasn't given them the point from the CG win over Trimble. Will Valley clinch a home game with those extra points or do we have to wait til week 10 to find that out?

[Crab's Brother]

It says on Joe EiteLs page Valley has clinched playoff spot but he hasn't given them the point from the CG win over Trimble. Will Valley clinch a home game with those extra points or do we have to wait til week 10 to find that out?

I doubt Joe will show clinched home game....but I feel they have. Joe's numbers are based or max/min numbers and the only way Valley doesn't host is some 0-2 win teams getting upsets in Week 10.

[Alitown]

He has it for Wynford as clinched home playoff game but not Valley, but he only has valley at 19.9 because he doesn't add forfeits Unless he is notified by OHSAA. I didn't know if that little amount of points would change anything.

[Crab's Brother]

I understand that...What I am saying is even with the Trimble forfeit, more than likely Valley will not have clinched home game by its name on Joe's page. While they basically have clinched, because technically some of the teams like Hillsdale, West, and Grandview could get wins from 0-2 win teams and pass the Indians, Valley hasn't "clinched" a home playoff game.

[indianabuck]

I think the numbers show that upsets could move alot around. If Valley and NY take care of business, they are home, and not having to take a 4+ hour road trip. The 4th team playing at home is going to be interesting. There are 3-4 teams that still could get that spot.

[Crab's Brother]

Any Nelsonville, Liberty Union, Grandview or any other posters involved in the big region games this week that want to exchange cell numbers this week for updates, just send me a PM and we will try to keep each other updated while the games are in progress Friday night.

[NYFan54]

If nobody from NY ponies up, I'll be your huckleberry.

[Crab's Brother]

Ok...I now will have updates from NY/Athens, GH/Liberty Union, Burg/West, Norwayne/Hillsdale, Crestview/Plymouth, and Valley/Minford. We should have a good idea where the local teams will be week 11 fairly early on Friday night.

[wobycat]

^^^^^
Thanks CB, hoping Burg can beat West and sneak in, either way I will root for the SOC!

Go Burg.

[Crab's Brother]

^^^^^

Not a problem...

Based on Joe's site, it looks like my only error is that I think I may have given NY and extra .5 on the second level.

Joe also hasn't included the Trimble/Coal Grove forfeit yet either. Other than Valley and NY, me and Joe have the same numbers for the top 12.

http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/2011region_19.html

[bucks_09]

Wynford and Valley have both clinched a home playoff game now after the trimble and cg forfiet was added in and Nelsonville is the only other team that has clinched a playoff spot. There are 9 teams now fighting for the remaining 5 spots.

[coop]

Drew's Region 19 FINAL projections:

1.) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 24.75
2.) Wynford (Bucyrus) 24.10
3.) Valley (Lucasville) 23.44
4.) Grandview Heights (Columbus) 19.75
5.) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 19.20
6.) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 19.00
7.) Crestview (Ashland) 18.65
8.) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 17.80



Drew's odds to make the Regional title game:

Wynford (Bucyrus) 3:1
Valley (Lucasville) 3:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 4:1
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 12:1
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 12:1
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 17:1
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 21:1
Crestview (Ashland) 55:1
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 90:1
Wheelersburg 110:1
Smithville 300:1

Drew's odds to the State title:

Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 2:1
Coldwater 5:1
Kirtland 5:1
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 15:1
Valley (Lucasville) 25:1
Wynford (Bucyrus) 25:1
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 30:1
Liberty Center 35:1
Pleasant (Marion) 40:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 40:1
Crestview (Columbiana) 50:1
Ursuline (Youngstown) 50:1
Versailles 90:1
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 140:1
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 200:1
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 200:1
Memorial (Campbell) 200:1
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 250:1
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 350:1
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 450:1

[Westfan]

This region is just unreal. I was looking at Time Warner. They have Hillsdale and Wynford games on there. They are very good. I looked Grandview Heights up. This site has a bunch of their game videos
http://www.ghfootball.com/
They look very impressive.

[Crab's Brother]

There are some real quality teams in this region. I am not going to say that the Region 19 champ will beat a LCC or Coldwater, but they will be more battle tested than in years past. The next 4 weeks should be fun.

[Westfan]

I mean this region has a bunch of very good teams. Maybe not a state winner or finalist, but several teams that could win the region.

[coop]

It's going to be fun.