Region 19 Calculations

[Crab's Brother]

Having gotten up early today and not wanting to watch Sportscenter and other shows talking about my Buckeyes’ collapse last night, I decided to try and calculate the Region 19 playoff picture. I know Joe’s site shows incomplete so some of these numbers may change. I have tried my best to predict and project a lot of games. This is how I figure it plays out. I kept notes on who I gave wins to, so any questions don’t hesitate to ask.

1. Nelsonville (10-0) 44 212.5 26.08
2. Wynford (10-0) 40.5 198.5 23.9
3. Valley (10-0) 42.5 185.5 22.99
4. Ridgewood (9-1) 35.5 166.5 20.2
5. Grand.Heights (10-0) 42 151.5 19.35
6. West (9-1) 39.5 150.5 19
7. Crestview (10-0) 38 149 18.7
8. Academy (7-3) 34 142.5 17.79

Please don’t take these projections as discounting Wheelersburg, but I have Valley and West both beating the Pirates. This could all change if Academy beats Granville they would go to 22.08 and take over the 4 seed and bump everyone down a spot. If Academy would lose to Granville (as I have projected) and losses to Licking Valley they would go to 14.51 and then Hillsdale would move into the 8th spot. I have Hillsdale losing to Norwayne in Week 10 and finishing at 15.05 with a 9-1 record. If the Falcons beat Norwayne, they will be 10-0 and have 19.3 computer points.

Other teams that are in contention that need mentioned are Smithville (losing to Norwayne and out), Centerburg (Don’t see enough points unless Crestview, West, or Academy slip up), Alexander (losing their next 2), and Liberty Union (losing their last two games).
Also worth mentioning are if NY loses to Athens, then I project them with a 21.25 total and finishing 3rd. This would create a NY-West first round matchup. If NY beats Athens, I think we will have Valley-West round 2 in Lucasville on November 4th.

I’m not 100% this will be how it plays out, but I do believe unless Hillsdale, Wheelersburg, Smithville, Alexander, or Liberty Union pull some “upsets” these 8 will be your 2011 playoff qualifiers in Region 19.


Discuss…..

[Westfan]

I would love to see west - valley round two. It could be even better than the first game.

[Jesco White]

I honestly believe Academy is going to lose to both Granville and Licking Valley, putting them on the outside looking in. Aside from that, I think I pretty much agree completely with the rest. That's going to make the Valley-West rematch and the Ridgewood-Grandview Heights match-ups as the games of the week for this region in the first round. Those should be great games to watch, assuming we're right and they take place.

[lineman7]

I think its a pretty giant leap to say Wheelersburg will lose to both Valley and West. I haven't seen Burg play, but to me they would have to be the favorite in both games. They are the defending champs, and they beat both teams last year. Until someone from SOC2 beats them, then they are the favorite in every game they play in the SOC2.

[buckeyeguy]

so at the end of the year 1-8 who plays who like is it the 1 seed plays 4 seed or 8 seed i cant remember how that works? jw

[bucks_09]

1 and 8 play 2and 7 3 and 6 4and 5 1-4 play at home

[buckeyeguy]

so NY imo will end up playing either of these 3

Portsmouth West 10.6357 26.5 68.5 100
7 7-0 720 Jeromesville Hillsdale 9.5786 27.5 56.5 100
8 5-2 410 Gahanna Columbus Academy

[bucks_09]

so NY imo will end up playing either of these 3

Portsmouth West 10.6357 26.5 68.5 100
7 7-0 720 Jeromesville Hillsdale 9.5786 27.5 56.5 100
8 5-2 410 Gahanna Columbus Academy

Wheelersburg could still get into the number 8 spot dont count them out yet.

[buckeyeguy]

Id like to see NY vs West be a good one.. but NY vs Wheelersburg would be awesome

[bucks_09]

I just dont want to see NY vs Col. Academy again it didnt turn out so well back in 06.

[buckeyeguy]

imo NY has a better team then 06 i think NY would pull it out this year imo even if they played LU agian also

[bucks_09]

This team is better than the 06 team. We shouldve won that game against lu worst night of my life losing by 1 point to a team that went to the semi finals. They had a first and goal on the one yard line right before the half and we stopped them but they still managed to win, this years team would have a good chance against them though i think. This is honestly one of the best classes i have seen.

[buckeyeguy]

This is the best team since 90s its the best shot we got for a 10-0 season imo its come down to the athens game its gonna be a dog fight .. both have great D, home feild for athens could give them some advantage both have more then a few great players and its the perfect game for NY to get ready for week 11

[coop]

Wheelersburg is nowhere close to the team they were a year ago, but I agree you cannot count them out. If they play like they did against Waverly the next 3 weeks...it could be a 6-4 year. I think Burg will step up and play some good ball however.

[lineman7]

Wheelersburg is nowhere close to the team they were a year ago, but I agree you cannot count them out. If they play like they did against Waverly the next 3 weeks...it could be a 6-4 year. I think Burg will step up and play some good ball however.

Burg has lost 1 game against an Ironton team that was playing with their hair on fire the first 2-3 weeks. I will believe they are down when they lose a game to SOC2 opponent.

[coop]

Wheelersburg is nowhere close to the team they were a year ago, but I agree you cannot count them out. If they play like they did against Waverly the next 3 weeks...it could be a 6-4 year. I think Burg will step up and play some good ball however.

Burg has lost 1 game against an Ironton team that was playing with their hair on fire the first 2-3 weeks. I will believe they are down when they lose a game to SOC2 opponent.

Who else have they played? Exactly...at 6-1 and #11 in the region shows that. I have tons of respect for Burg, and they all know that...but it is what it is at this point. We'll see in 2 weeks when the play Valley and then West back to back.

[lineman7]

LOL, I will agree with you that we will definitely see in 2 weeks.

[Bdog_198807]

I am a pirate fan and always will be. But i dont think they will win out they should beat minford. They will play with west they might win but they better bring it. I cannot see us beating valley they are way too deep. i could see valley going deep in the playoffs. i would like to see valley vs adena that would be a good game maybe for state cause ursuline will be at home watchin tv.

[Crab's Brother]

Wheelersburg is nowhere close to the team they were a year ago, but I agree you cannot count them out. If they play like they did against Waverly the next 3 weeks...it could be a 6-4 year. I think Burg will step up and play some good ball however.

Burg has lost 1 game against an Ironton team that was playing with their hair on fire the first 2-3 weeks. I will believe they are down when they lose a game to SOC2 opponent.

I see where you are coming from but, I take it you haven't seen this Burg team play. They have a solid ball club and I have a ton of respect for the Wheelersburg program, but this is not you dad's Pirates. I have seen them once in person and once on film. I will say that Shears in one of the best in this part of the state. He can run, throw, and is solid in the secondary. However, I just don't see any running game outside of him. The Pirates are one of the least physical teams I have seen from Wheelersburg in my time watching Burg football (15 or so years). They have some nice skill kids, but upfront, they just don't look like they can compete with West and Valley. Having said that, going into Friday night I thought that the Burg would matchup a lot better with Valley than they did with West. I think the Pirates will struggle with teams that are good upfront and can run downhill at their undersized line and linebackers. After watching Valley basically have their way upfront with West, I think Burg will struggle with both these teams. I am not naive enough to say that neither of these teams could lose to Burg, but I just don't see it with this version of the Pirates. And before anyone says anything, I am a Valley fan and I know that we haven't beaten the Burg in 47 years (about 25 games). I just feel that due to our senior laden team, this is the year that we get the monkey off our backs. That is unless their is another Shank that joins the Burg team in the next couple of weeks. LOL

[wobycat]

^^^