Division 5 Region 19 in 2010

[selonmc]

Don't give up I drain 3's. A lot can happen and Caldwell can still get in.

[fuzzhead]

Best case scenario for a CG home game, Valley wins out an puts Burg and Minford at 7-3. I don't look for that to happen, but even if CG doesn't get a home game, it looks like they'll end up playing no farther than an hour away, either somewhere in Scioto County or at Oak Hill again. I do think they'll get a home game, though. Once again, a great rundown, selomc. This region is tighter than a can of sardines once again!

[I drain 3's]

Just for the fun of it, this is how I see the last two weeks going:

Fredericktown- wins out to 10-0
Oak Hill- Finishes 8-2, losing to New Richmond
Valley- 9-1, losing to Wheelersburg, beating Minford
Coal Grove- Wins out to 9-1
Minford- finishes 7-3, loss to Valley
Monroe Central- wins out to 8-2
Caldwell- wins out to 9-1
Ridgewood- wins out to 10-0
Nelsonville-York- finishes 7-3, losing to Alexander
Adena- wins out to 7-3
Wheelersburg- wins out to 8-2

Just a guesstimation.

[MuletownManiac]

What happens to Minford if Burg beats Valley, and Minford loses to Valley???? Or Burg loses to Valley and Minford beats Valley?

[vladimir]

^ Minford needs W'burg to lose one either to Valley or Ports. West, or the Falcons have to beat Valley. Oak Hill, Meigs, Wellston, and Piketon winning will help Minford. Piketon is doubtful though.

[fuzzhead]

A lot of Minford's 2nd level points are toss-ups this week. Many are picking Oak Hill to lose, you never know what Meigs is going to do on the road against Vinton County on their senior night, plus Wellston has a very tough matchup against Athens on the road. A win against Valley in week 10 should cement a home game though, especially if Burg beats Valley.

[vladimir]

For Minford, the ideal situation would be for Valley to beat W'burg and then Minford beat Valley. I agree those games are not a gimme with Wellston and oak Hill. Meigs will beat Vinton Co. Piketon will probably not win another, and S. Point will only beat River Valley. It'll all come down to taking care of business yourself, and not relying on anyone else.

[Crab's Brother]

Minford could find themselves in a situation next week where a win at Valley gets them a home game and a loss puts them out. I haven't crunched a lot of the numbers but I have to believe that Minford gets in no matter what if both Nelsonville and Adena lose this week and a couple of their beaten opponents win at least once more. However, if Nelsonville and Adena both win out and Minford loses in Lucasville, Minford will be out.

[vladimir]

Nelsonville and Adena wont lose another game. Alexander has only beat NY once in their history (57yrs) and never at Nelsonville. Athens plays in Nelsonville as well and NY owns that series. Adena will beat Piketon and their last game is against Huntington Ross. I don't think Adena has a chance to get in anyway playing a winless team for their last game. It's Nelsonville that will get in if the Falcons lose at Valley, and W'burg wins out.

[I drain 3's]

Pasteur's site has been updated.

Projected Seeds:

1) Valley (Lucasville)
2) Fredericktown
3) Oak Hill
4) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
5) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville)
6) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
7) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
8) Caldwell

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_19

[selonmc]

I'll throw my opinion in about Minford.

If Minford wins out they are in probably in the 6th seed area. For them to move into a hosting spot their likely best chance would be for Nelsonville to lose 1 more game, and that would move Minford up to 5th. I believe they'd also need another team like Oak Hill to lose (to New Richmond). Then they would also need Valley to lose to Wheelersburg.

So at this point a LOT of things have to happen, but all are not completely out of the question. First they have to win out.

[selonmc]

Pasteur's site has been updated.

Projected Seeds:

1) Valley (Lucasville)
2) Fredericktown
3) Oak Hill
4) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
5) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville)
6) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
7) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
8) Caldwell

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_19

The main difference between mine and his is he has Oak Hill beating New Richmond. Calpreps is also predicting a 7 pt win by Oak Hill, so I humbly concede to them on that one.

He also has Valley beating Wheelersburg. I have it the other way around. He has Valley by 5 and Calpreps has Valley by 3. Too close to call.

[vladimir]

^ Seeing that Minford beat Oak Hill, I'm pretty sure Minford wants Oak Hill to win against New Richmond, as that will give Minford credit for a D-3 win. At this point, they will take as many 2nd level as they can get. I agree about Nelsonville losing, as that would give Minford a little breathing room, but I dont see them losing to Alexander or Athens at home. Rigewood also has a tough game on the road this week so if they lose they're out.

[Jesco White]

I agree that Nelsonville-York won't lose another game. I also think that Adena will win out, but I tend to agree that it probably won't matter much in terms of the playoffs, unless several other things happen. I think that a healthy Oak Hill team beats New Richmond. Are the Oaks finally back to 100%? A lot is gonna hinge on the next two weeks in the SOC II between Wheelersburg-Valley, Minford-Valley and West-Wheelersburg.

[MuletownManiac]

Pasteur's site has been updated.

Projected Seeds:

1) Valley (Lucasville)
2) Fredericktown
3) Oak Hill
4) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove)
5) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville)
6) Ridgewood (West Lafayette)
7) Monroe Central (Woodsfield)
8) Caldwell

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_19

Drew's website has Caldwell making it into the playoffs, but on the regional championship odds, their not even mentioned, while Minford is, with a 30:1 odds of winning the region???? What gives

[fuzzhead]

Because Minford is a higher-rated team and has a legitimate poop at the playoffs. Minford is clearly the better team anyway.

[vladimir]

^ He's saying that Caldwell will win out, while Minford will not. In his opinion, Minford is a better team but Caldwell has a better chance of making it in. Bolied down Ridgewood, Nelsonville, and Wheelersburg if they win out it will move Caldwell out. If Minford beats Valley and all the 3 above win then you see Minford in there and Nelsonville out.

Bottom line for Minford: It will all fall into place, IF, they take care of their own business on the field and don't worry about someone else doing it for them.

[fuzzhead]

I didn't mean to say the "s" word. I meant Minford has a shot. My bad!

[selonmc]

Poor Caldwell. They create so much controversy in Region 19. lol. Caldwell is a better team than they were last year and the first half of this season. They're throwing the ball around 40 times a game and making themselves a more balanced team. I'm not going so far as to say they can win a playoff game because I think Monroe Central is better and I don't think they can win one either, but if Caldwell gets in they deserve it.

Plus whether you agree with it or not, the SOC II teams are in the playoffs right now. I've always believed the regular season is round 1 of the playoffs. I know it doesn't mean the same as actually making it to week 11. If Minford loses to Valley then Caldwell didn't keep them out of the playoffs Valley did. Same with Nelsonville. For most of these teams if they win they're in. That simple. Caldwell can't say that even at 9-1. I'd rather be in Minford's place not Caldwell's.

[selonmc]

^ He's saying that Caldwell will win out, while Minford will not. In his opinion, Minford is a better team but Caldwell has a better chance of making it in. Bolied down Ridgewood, Nelsonville, and Wheelersburg if they win out it will move Caldwell out. If Minford beats Valley and all the 3 above win then you see Minford in there and Nelsonville out.
Bottom line for Minford: It will all fall into place, IF, they take care of their own business on the field and don't worry about someone else doing it for them.

I agree with most everything, but I think if Nelsonville wins out they are definitely in. In your scenario I see Valley being the one out.