Region 9 (an extreme analysis) after week 8

[teach1coach2]

Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ] Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.

Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 10 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 9. Based on what has happened weeks 1-8 and what will likely happen weeks 9-10 with “favorites” winning, here would be the rankings:

1) Tri-Valley 28.95 – win out (10-0)
Logan Elm 28.9 – win out (9-1)
2) Dover 27.32929 – win out 8-2
Granville 26.9 – win out (9-1)
3) Athens 26.8 – win out (10-0)
4) Jackson 26.43469 – win out (10-0)
DeSales 25.63247 – win out (9-1)
5) Logan Elm 25.3 – lose to Hamilton Township (8-2)
Tri-Valley 24.05 – lose to Maysville (9-1)
6) Granville 22.85 – lose to Licking Valley (8-2)
Dover 22.83990 – lose to New Philadephia (8-2)
Jackson 22.41327 – lose to Ironton (9-1)
New Philadelphia 21.9 – win out (8-2)
7) DeSales 21.52268 – lose to Hartley (8-2)
8 ) West Holmes 19.15 – win out (7-3)
Big Walnut 18.54293 – win out (7-3)
New Philadelphia 17.5 – lose to Dover (7-3)
West Holmes 15.4 – lose to Wooster (6-4)


Prediction as of 10/20/14………………………………………Yes, this will likely change next week. Mostly for those in the top 10 of Region 9 who lose in week 9.

#1 Tri-Valley hosts #8 West Holmes
#2 Dover hosts #7 DeSales
#3 Athens hosts #6 Granville
#4 Jackson hosts #5 Logan Elm

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#1 Tri-Valley (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 50/10 + 239.5/10=28.95 Projected Average (Approx. 24.05 if Maysville beats TV in week 9)

Week 1-8 L1= 40, L2= 137
Week 9 L1=5 beat Maysville (8-0) & gained L2= 39 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.9 from ave. if Maysville wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Philo (3-5) & gained L2= 13.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.85 from ave. if Philo wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 24.5
Licking Valley over Lakewood (5.5), if Lak wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Lak wins
Zanesville over RiverView (5), if RV wins (0); Minus .5 to ave. if RV wins
Sheridan over Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if CR wins (5.5) Add .15 to ave. if CR wins
Philo over Morgan; TV beat both (5)
John Glenn vs. New Lex; TV beat both (5)
Caldwell over West Muskingum (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if Caldwell wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25.5
Granville over Licking Valley (0), if LV wins (5.5); Add .55 to ave. if LV wins
Zanesville over Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
West Muskingum over Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mor wins (4.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Mor wins
Maysville over Claymont (5), if CL wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if CL wins
Crooksville over John Glenn; TV beat both (5), if JG wins (4) Minus .1 from ave. if JG wins
Sheridan over New Lex; TV beat both (5), if NL wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if NL wins

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#2 Logan Elm (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 46/10 + 243/10=28.9 Projected Average (Approx. 25.3 if Ham Twnsp beats LE in week 10)

Week 1-8 L1=35, L2=160
Week 9 L1=5 beat Amanda Clearcreek (4-4) & gained L2=19.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.45 from ave. if AC wins
Week 10 L1=6 beat Hamilton Township (5-3) & gained L2=25 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.6 from ave. if HT wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 19
Westfall vs. Zane Trace; LE beat both (4.5)
Clinton Massie over Miami Trace (0); if MT wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if MT wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union; LE beat both (5), if FU wins (6) Add .1 to ave. if FU wins
Hamilton Township over Bloom-Carroll; LE beat(s) both (5), if BC wins (6) Add .1 to ave. if BC wins
Circleville over Liberty Union (4.5), if LU wins (0), Minus .45 from ave. if LU wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
Unioto over Zane Trace (0), if ZT wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if ZT wins
Westfall over Adena (4.5), if Adena wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Adena wins
Miami Trace over Washington CH (5.5); if Wash wins (0), Minus .55 from (.55) if Wash wins
Teays Valley over Bloom Carroll; LE beat both (5), if BC wins (6) Add .1 to ave. if BC wins
Liberty Union over Fairfield Union (0), if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 from ave. if FU wins
Circleville over Amanda Clearcreek; LE beat both (4.5), Add .05 to ave. if AC wins

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#3 Dover (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 44/10 + 227/9.9=27.32929 Projected Average (Approx. 22.83990 if New Philadelphia beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-8 L1=33 , L2=137
Week 9 L1=5.5 beat Marietta (3-5) & gained L2=13.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.91364 from ave. if Marietta wins
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (7-2) & gained L2= 33.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.48939 from ave. if NP wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 22
Lorne Park over St Edmund (who knows?)(6), if St E wins (0) Minus .60606 from ave. if St E wins
Canfield over Niles (5.5), if Niles wins (0) Minus .55556 from ave. if Niles wins
Scott over Waite (0), if Waite wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Waite wins
Zanesville over RiverView (5), if RV wins (0); Minus .50505 from ave. if RV wins
New Philly over Cambridge; Dover beat(s) both (5.5).
Claymont over Coshocton (0), if Cosh wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Cosh wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21
St. Joan of Arc over Lorne Park (who knows?)(0), if LP wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if LP wins
Poland over Canfield (0),if Canfield wins (5.5) Add .55556 to ave. if Canfield wins
Waite over Woodward (5.5), if Woodard wins (0) Minus .55556 from ave. if Woodard wins
Zanesville over Marietta; Dover beat both (5.5), if Mar wins (6) Add .05556 to ave. if Mar wins
Coshocton over River View (5), if RV wins (0) Minus .5155 from ave. if RV wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Mead wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Mead wins

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#4 Granville (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 222/10=26.9 Projected Average (Approx. 22.85 if Licking Valley beats Granville in week 10)

Week 1-8 L1=38, L2=133
Week 9 L1=4 beat Newark Catholic (4-4) & gained L2=18 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.7 from ave. if NC wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Licking Valley (6-2) gained L2=30.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.05 if LV wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
Jonathan Alder over River Valley (0); if RV wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if RV wins
Johnstown over Heath (0); if Hea wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if Hea wins
New Philly over Cambridge (0), if Cambridge wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Cambridge wins
Utica over Northridge (4.5), if Northridge wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Northridge wins
Licking Valley over Lakewood (5); Granville beat(s) both
Watkins Memorial over Licking Heights (6); Granville beat both

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25
River Valley over Upper Sandusky (5); if UA wins (0), Minus .5 if UA wins
Heath over Northridge (4.5), if Northridge wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Northridge wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
Newark Catholic over Utica (5), if Utica wins (4) Minus .4 from ave. if Utica wins
Watkins Memorial over Lakewood (5.5); Granville beat both, if Lak wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if Lak wins
Johnstown Monroe over Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if LH wins
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#5 Athens (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/10=49/10 + 219.5/10 =26.8 Projected Average

Week 1-8 L1=40.5 , L2=123.5
Week 9 L1=4.5 beat River Valley (4-4) & gained L2=18 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.25 from ave. if RV wins
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (6-2) & gained L2=26.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.05 from ave. if NY wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 27
Logan over Gallia Academy (0), if GA wins (6) Add .6 to ave. if GA wins
Zanesville over RiverView (5), if RV wins (0) Minus .55 to ave. if RV wins
Warren Local over Portsmouth (4.5), if Portsmouth wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Portsmouth wins
Trimble over Alexander (0); if Alex wins (3.5) Add 3.5 to ave. if Alex wins
Steubenville over Wheeling Park (6.5); if WP wins (0) Minus .65 from ave. if WP wins
Wellston over Meigs; Athens beat both (5.5) if Meigs wins (4.5) Minus .1 from ave. if Meigs wins
Nelsonville over Vinton County; Athens beat both (5.5), Minus .15 from ave. if VC wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Jackson over Gallia Academy (0); If GA wins (5.5), if GA wins (5.5) Add .55 ave. if GA wins
Zanesville over Marietta (5.5); if Mar wins (0), Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
Logan over Warren Local (0); if WL wins (6),Add .6 to ave. if WL wins
Steubenville over Canada Prep (3.5); if CP wins (0), Minus .35 from ave. if CP wins
Alexander over Meigs; Athens beat both (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins
Wellston over Vinton County; Athens beat both (5.5), Minus .1 from ave. if VC wins
River Valley over Northwest (4.5); If NW wins (0), Miinus .45 from ave. if NW wins

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#6 Jackson (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/9.8= 47/10 + 213/9.8=26.43469 Projected Average (Approx. 22.41327 if Ironton beats Jackson in week 9)

Week 1-8 L1= 37.5, L2= 120.5
Week 9 L1=4.5 beat Ironton (6-1) & gained L2= 31 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.02142 from ave. if Ironton wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Gallia Academy (4-4) & gained L2= 18.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.38776 from ave. if GA wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 19
Wellston over Meigs (5.5); if Meigs wins (0) Minus .56122 from ave. if Meigs wins
Minford over Waverly (0); if Wav wins (5), Add .51020 to ave. if Wav wins
Whitehall over West Jefferson (0), if WJ wins (5.5), Add .56122 to ave. if WJ wins
Ready has a bye week.
Wheelersburg over Valley (4); if Valley wins (0), Minus .40816 from ave. if Val wins
Warren Local over Portsmouth (4.5), if Ports wins (5) Add .05102 ave. if Ports wins
Logan over Gallia Academy (5); if GA wins (6),Add .10204 to ave. if GA wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Wellston over Vinton County (5.5); if VC wins (0), Minus .56122 from ave. if VC wins
Chesapeake over Waverly (0); if Ches wins (4.5), Add .45918 to ave. if Ches wins
West Jefferson over Londan (5), if Lon wins (0), Add .51020 to ave. if Lon wins
Hartley over Ready (0); if Ready wins (4.5), Add .45918 to ave. if Ready wins
Wheelersburg over P. West (4.5); if PT wins (0), Minus .45918 from ave. if PT wins
Logan over Warren Local (5); if WL wins (6), Add .10204 to ave. if WL wins
Hughes over Portsmouth (0); if Ports wins (5.5), Add .56122 to ave. if Ports wins
Ironton over Raceland (4); if Race wins (0), Minus .40816 from ave. if Race wins


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#7 DeSales (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.7= 45.5/10 +204.5 /9.7=25.63247 Projected Average (Approx. 21.52268 if Hartley beats DeSales in week 9)

Week 1-8 L1= 37, L2= 114.5
Week 9 L1=4.5 beat Hartley (6-2) & gained L2= 31.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.10979 from ave. if Hartley wins
Week 10 L1=4 beat Linsly (4-3) & gained L2= 16 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.04948 from ave. if Linsly wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 17.5
Bishop Fenwick over Chaminade Julienne (0); if CJ wins (5), Add .51546 to ave. if CJ wins
Kilbourne over New Albany (0); if NA wins (6), Add .61856 to ave. if NA wins
Buchtel over North (5.5); if North wins (0) Minus .567010 from ave. if North wins
Warrensville Heights over Shaw (6); if Shaw wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if Shaw wins
Watterson over St. Charles, DeSales beat both (6); if SC wins (5), Minus .10309 from ave. if SC wins
Beechcroft over Centennel (0); if Cen wins (5) Add .51546 to from ave. if Cen wins
Linsly plays Columbus Crusaders so win or lose it does not count.

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25
Bishop Fenwick over Chaminade Julienne (0); if CJ wins (5), Add .51546 to ave. if CJ wins
Mount Vernon over New Albany (0); if NA wins (6), Add .61856 to ave. if NA wins
Buchtel over Kenmore (5.5); if Kenmore wins (0) Minus .567010 from ave. if Kenmore wins
Warrensville Heights over Lutheran East (3.5); if LE wins (0) Minus .36082 from ave. if LE wins
St. Charles over Marion Harding (6); if MH wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if MH wins
Centennel over Whetstone (6); if Whet wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if Whet wins
Winton Woods over Watterson (0), if Watterson wins (6) Add .61856 to ave. if Watterson wins
Hartley over Ready (4), if Ready wins (0), Add .41237 if Ready wins

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#8 West Holmes (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 37.5/10 + 154/10=19.15 Projected Average (Approx. 15.4 if Wooster beats WH in week 9)

Week 1-8 L1=27.5 , L2=78.5
Week 9 L1=5 beat Wooster (5-3) & gained L2=28 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.75 from ave. if Wooster wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Clear Fork (3-5) & gained L2= 15.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 2.05 from ave. if Clear Fork wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 16
Ashland over Madison Comprehensive (5.5), if MC wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if MC wins
Mansfield over Lexington (5.5), if Lex wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if Lex wins
Orrville over Clearfork; WH beat both (5), if Clearfork wins (4.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Clearfork wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
Madison Comprehensive over Mansfield (6), if Man wins (5.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Man wins
Ashland over Lexington (5.5), if Lex wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if Lex wins
Wooster over Orrville; WH beat both (4.5), if Orrville wins (6) Add .15 to ave. if Orrville wins

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#9 Big Walnut (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 42.5/10 + 141.5/10=18.54293 Projected Average

Week 1-8 L1= 30.5, L2= 87
Week 9 L1=6 beat Orange (4-4) & gained L2= 25 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.12525 from ave. if Orange wins
Week 10 L1=6 beat Franklin Heights (1-7) & gained L2= 5.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.15556 from ave. if FH wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 18
Mansfield over Lexington (5.5), if Lex wins (0), Minus .55556 from ave. if Lex wins
Canal Winchester over Westerville North (6.5); if North wins (0), Minus .65657 if North wins
Hayes over Franklin Heights (6); Big Walnut beat(s) both, if FH wins (6.5), Add .05051 to ave. if FH wins
Olentangy over Mt. Vernon (0); if MV wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if MV wins
Kilbourne over New Albany (0); if NA wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if NA wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 6
Madison Comprehensive over Mansfield (0), if Man wins (5.5), Add .55556 to ave. if Man wins
Dublin Scioto over Canal Winchester (0), if CW wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if CW wins
Olentangy over Hayes (0); if Hayes wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if Hayes wins
Mount Vernon vs. New Albany (6); Big Walnut beat both
Kilbourne over Orange (0); if Orange wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if Orange wins

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#10 New Philadelphia (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 136/10=17.5 Projected Average (Approx. 21.9 if NP beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-8 L1=33.5 , L2=99
Week 9 L1=5.5 beat Cambridge (3-5) & gained L2=15.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.1 from ave. if Cam wins
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-2). Dover has L2=38.5 (through 9 weeks – includes win over Marietta). Add 4.4 to ave. if NP wins

New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
West Holmes over Wooster (6), if Woo wins (0); Minus .6 from ave. if Woo wins
Poland over Youngstown East (0), if YE wins (5.5); Add .55 to ave. if YE wins
Hubbard over Northwest (0), if NW wins (5.5); Add .55 to ave. if NW wins
Claymont over Coshocton (4.5), if Coshocton wins (0); Minus .45 from ave. if Co wins
Zanesville over RiverView (5), if RV wins (0); Minus .5 from ave. if RV wins
Dover over Marietta (0), if Mar wins (5.5); Add .55 to ave. if Mar wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
West Holmes over Clearfork (5), if CF wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if CF wins
Niles McKinley over Youngstown East (0), if YE wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if YE wins
Northwest over Barberton (6), if Bar wins (0) Minus .6 from ave. if Bar wins
Maysville over Claymont (0), if CL wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CL wins
Zanesville over Marietta; NP beat both (5.5), if Marietta wins (6) Add .5 to ave. if Marietta wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins

[teach1coach2]

I believe the number for Tri-Valley is pretty solid. I have seen all the teams in their league (MVL) play; plus it is only .05 off from what Drew Pasteur has.

If you know a lot about a league that has a team here and think I obviously picked the wrong team on some L2 point games, please tell me that in this thread.

Also, I use this info from year to year in Region 9. Lots of cut and pasting. Let me know if you think I forgot to delete something from last year or update something this year.

[93Bulldog]

Great stuff.

Thanks

Gonna be an interesting two weeks to say the least.

[teach1coach2]

Someone on another site found an error in my Granville calculations. I fixed it and updated my prediction.

[Ironman92]

I spent some minutes looking and have Desales 3rd as the teams they have already beaten are going to compile a lot of wins in week 9 and 10

I mapped it out...

1. Tri Valley
2. Dover
3. Desales
4. Jackson
5. Athens
6. Logan Elm
7. Granville

[doubleplay643]

I spent some minutes looking and have Desales 3rd as the teams they have already beaten are going to compile a lot of wins in week 9 and 10

I mapped it out...

1. Tri Valley
2. Dover
3. Desales
4. Jackson
5. Athens
6. Logan Elm
7. Granville

That is a really, really crappy map job I92...

[bucks_09]

So I take it region 9 only has 7 teams making playoffs this year.

[bengals01]

I spent some minutes looking and have Desales 3rd as the teams they have already beaten are going to compile a lot of wins in week 9 and 10

I mapped it out...

1. Tri Valley
2. Dover
3. Desales
4. Jackson
5. Athens
6. Logan Elm
7. Granville

I guess the 8 seed forfeited

[SOHSP]

Whoever the 8 seed is, having to go to Tri Valley and face their 3.4 point per game defense in week 11 would be good reason for a forfeit! Through 8 weeks they have given up a total of 27 points - amazing.

[maniac66]

Whoever the 8 seed is, having to go to Tri Valley and face their 3.4 point per game defense in week 11 would be good reason for a forfeit! Through 8 weeks they have given up a total of 27 points - amazing.

That's unreal to be sure. Be interesting how many they give up tonight against a undefeated Maysville team but still an amazing defense one that I would love to see play a offensive Juggernaut like Athens.

[Ironman92]

Desales lost....messes mine up by I'm good with that

[Raider6309]

Can Big walnut pass Desales for the 8th spot? Ik they both should win next week

[G.W.A.]

Logan Elm and Desales both lost week 9. Getting interesting for sure.

[Ironman92]

Can Big walnut pass Desales for the 8th spot? Ik they both should win next week

I haven't did the math but Desales should be getting a lot of 2nd level points from their prior defeated opponents.

[Ironmannut07]

Joe eitel has Jackson as number 2 in there region as of right now with his latest update.

[indianabuck]

According to the numbers Joe Eitel gas it will be difficult to pass DeSales if they win next week.

[teach1coach2]

DeSales will be in top 8 if they win week 10 (which they should).

I will update my numbers tomorrow night.

I know for sure TV is 1 seed. Dover win and they should be 2 seed. I expect Logan Elm and Granville to lose in week 10. That puts Jackson and Athens as a toss up for 3. and 4. Logan Elm and Granville as toss up for 5 and 6. I look for DeSales to be 7 and New Philly of Big Walnut to be 8. This is just eye balling the numbers, I will look closer in 24 hours.

[JasonClaytor]

DeSales should be in with a win week 10. DeSales is very good, but their offense has been shut down the past two weeks. They run an option offense, and they were only able to score on Hartley with a 50 or so yard deep wheel route. I think they will be a tough out for anybody, as long as they get in the playoffs.

[Ironman92]

West Jeff over Whitehall helps Jackson...didn't have that one

[indianabuck]

I'm not sure Logan Elm loses to Hamilton Township next week. I don't know how they won last night with 6 turnovers.