everything region 15 after 5 weeks.

svac83
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everything region 15 after 5 weeks.

Post by svac83 »

Even with all the cancelled games and everything going on right now in this region the average L2 divider will be 92 not bad.

These are week 10 minimum final rankings as long as all games are played with any guaranteed points added.

bloom carroll 25 2.5 60 6.18556701 8.68556701 97
meadowbrook 19 1.9 42 4.375 6.275 98
indian valley 13.5 1.6 35.5 4.493670886 6.181170886 79
st. clairsville 18 1.8 37.5 4.032258065 5.832258065 93
carrollton 21.5 2.1 31 3.163265306 5.313265306 98
heath 14.5 1.4 36 3.673469388 5.123469388 98
john glenn 10 1.11 35.5 3.944444444 5.055555556 90
linden mckinley 22 2.2 26.5 2.819148936 5.019148936 94
union local 16.5 1.83 25 3.048780488 4.882113821 82
logan elm 14 1.4 30 3.092783505 4.492783505 97
philo 18.5 1.85 25.5 2.602040816 4.452040816 98
highland 13 1.3 25 2.551020408 3.851020408 98
gallia academy 10 1.42 17.5 2.777777778 4.206349206 63
maysville 9 0.9 22.5 2.272727273 3.172727273 99
cambridge 15 1.5 16 1.649484536 3.149484536 97
licking valley 9.5 1.0 18 2.02247191 3.078027466 89
vinton county 14.5 1.6 8.5 0.988372093 2.599483204 86
warren 7.5 0.716.5 1.755319149 2.505319149 94
river view 9 0.9 13.5 1.421052632 2.321052632 95
east 16.5 1.65 6 0.638297872 2.288297872 94
circleville 8 0.8 8.5 0.87628866 1.67628866 97
marion franklin 6 0.6 6 0.618556701 1.218556701 97
bexley 11 1.1 0 0 1.1 93
fairfield union 5 0.5 0 0 0.5 98
indian creek 0 0 0 0 0 84
lakewood 0 0 0 0 0 99
claymont 0 0 0 0 0 87

following is a breakdown of each individual team and their playoff chances and projections in no particular order
after this week i will basically eliminate the teams that have no realistic chance.

Bexley: There only 2 wins so far this season is against two teams that are a combined 0-10 The rest of there schedule is not incredible but they could finish between 2-8 and 5-5. I have them projected at 2-8 and finishing season with 1.58 computer points out of playoffs.

Claymont: current record is 0-4 the toughest part of their schedule is still to come see possibility of 1 win. Right now, I have them projected 0-10 out of playoffs.

Lakewood: current record 0-5 they will probably be favored to beat Utica at end of season but that is only win I see projected at 1-9 out of playoffs.

Indian creek: current record 0-4 they have 2 or 3 winnable games in second half of season. Right now I have them finishing season 2-7 with wins over martins ferry and Harrison central finishing with 3.14 computer points out of playoffs.

Fairfield union: current record 1-4 they may be able to compete in 2 games in second half of season with liberty union and Circleville. Right now, I have them projected to finish 1-9 out of playoffs.

Circleville: currently 2-3 on season I have them beating Fairfield union and a shot at liberty union. Current projection is 3-7 and 2.69 computer points with a win over liberty union 4-6 and 4.58 computer points which would still be out of playoffs.

Riverview: current record 2-3 the rest of their schedule is tough. They may be able to be competitive against Maysville but the only win I really see is Coshocton. So I have them finishing 3-7 and computer points of 5.03 if they could get a one upset along the way they could be in the hunt.

Warren: current record 2-3 the only possible win I see on remaining schedule is Marietta and Marietta seems to be playing better and may have lots of confidence by week 10. I see warren finishing 2-8 and 2.87 computer points a win against marrietta would be a 3-7 record and finish with 5.50 computer points out of playoffs.

Marion franklin: current record 1-4 2nd half of schedule much easier for them then the first half. I have them beating independence, walnut ridge and west. Have the contest with afrientic as a toss up and have them loosing to south so finishing 4-6 or 5-5 if they finish 4-6 I have them with 6.723 computer points. If the pull off win against afrientic that would have them finish with about 11.30 computer points and they would be in.

East: current record 3-2 I have them finishing season with a 7-3 mark. With the loss coming to linden mckinley. Even at 7-3 their computer point total will only be about 10.965 points. Right now the 7 teams I project them to beat have a combined record of 4-29

Maysville: current record 2-3 projected record 4-6 with wins over Crooksville and Riverview this will leave them with computer points average of 7.15 so they probably need to either beat one of the three other opponents Sheridan, john glenn or philo to get into the playoffs.

Highland: current record 3-2 projected record of 6-4 loses coming to northmor and east knox. This would lead them a computer average of 9.74 points.

Cambridge: current record 3-2 projected record 7-3 winning rest of remaining games except st. Clairsville. Giving them a final computer average 11.02 points

Logan elm: current record 3-2 projected record 5-5 the 2 wins are Fairfield union and liberty union. This will give them 10.03 computer points. They really need zane trace to keep winning and not have a bad loss.

Heath: current record 3-2 projected record 7-3 the loss coming against Newark catholic. This would leave them at 10.64 computer points.

John glenn: current record 2-2 projected record 4-5 this is a team that could get on a roll and finish much higher. They will beat riverview and Maysville this will putt tem at 12.22 computer points. This would be as a visitor if you beat meadowbrook or philo and you are probably hosting in week 11 when them both and you could be in a position to host the first two weeks.

Gallia academy current record 2-1, projected record 5-2. This team will have it works cut out to finish 5-2 they will play coal grove having not played in 28 days and only having at mot 4 practices in last 18 days. This would leve them with 12.89 computer points. They need meigs and Athens to win the games they are supposed to win. I don’t see any chance of a home game.

Vinton county: current record 3-1 projected record 7-2 with the loss being to Nelsonville York. I have them projected with 12.50 computer points they probably either have to beat Nelsonville York or will need some help to host. The 7 teams I have them projected as being has a combined record of 9-24 and don’t project to a ton more wins.

Philo: current record 4-1 projected record 8-2 the loss coming to tri valley as long as this team beats Sheridan it should host in first round. If not they will right in the 8th or 9th position.

Union Local: current record 4-0 projected record 6-3 or 5-4 I don’t really know anything about their opponent Westinghouse pa…. an outside shot at 7-2 right now I like Barnesville in that game. I have them at a computer average of 12.28 and playing on road. I would say this team is the team that through half the season I know the least about and with there out of state opponents I have the least confidence in the l2 points.

Indian valley: current record 3-0 projected record 6-2 loses to garaway and ridgewood. They could finish 8-0 not sure you can separate these 3 teams yet. Projected at 18.18 computer points should easily host in 1st round and has a shot to host in 1st two rounds.

Carrollton: current record 4-1 projected record 8-2 with the loss coming to west branch. They have 3 competitive games next 3 weeks I have them going 2-1 finishing with 19.864 computer points. Should host in first round as long as they finish 7-3

Licking valley: current record 2-2 projected record 6-3 I am not sure if this team is typical licking valley team or not, they seem to be most vulnerable of the top 8. Have them finishing with 19.06 computer points.

Meadowbrook: current record 4-1 projected record 9-1 but they have a dangerous game against john glenn this week that seems to be getting better. Beat john glenn this week and you got a great chance to host in first two rounds. Lose to john glenn and you probably host round 1 on road in round two. Projected playoff points. 21.02 computer points.

Linden Mckinley: current record. 4-1 projected record 9-1 in week10 there game with east will be key to where these teams are seeded in playoffs. I have them projected at 21.50 computer points. If they beat east in a great spot 2 host first and second rounds. The win against Afrientic was huge for them.

St. Clairsville: current record 4-1 I have them projected at 9-1 big game on remaining schedule is against bellaire fiest weekend in October. Finishing computer average 26.14

Bloom carroll: current record 5-0 projected record 10-0 toughest games are against teays valley and Hamilton twp to finish season. Ut right now I have them favored to win out. Computer point average 28.29 points projected number 1 seed.
Last edited by svac83 on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:48 pm, edited 7 times in total.


Rolltanks
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Re: preseason region 15 playoff projections

Post by Rolltanks »

Points aside, bloom Carroll walks away with this region imo.


svac83
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Re: preseason region 15 playoff projections

Post by svac83 »

Right now I think it is bloom Carroll and licking valley. Bloom Carroll may end up being the top point earner in region. That is just a pretty tough schedule to go clean.

Meadow brook also has a nice team but they aren’t going to get a great seed I don’t think. Schedule is kind of week


Rolltanks
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Re: preseason region 15 playoff projections

Post by Rolltanks »

Idk bout points I’m saying bloom Carroll is easily the best team in this region


svac83
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Re: preseason region 15 playoff projections

Post by svac83 »

I don’t really care who wins the playoffs I will root for my team until they are out. I just like to see what potential matchups might be and the mathematical choices of possible outcomes.


Jokerswild
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Re: preseason region 15 playoff projections

Post by Jokerswild »

Bloom Carrol will definitely be the team to beat. Sounds as if licking valley will be young so they may end up with a couple more losses than usual but will probably be playing good ball at the end of the season. Could be dangerous with expanded playoffs. John Glenn returns majority of their team from last year. Played the playoffs with third string qb or probably would have faired better. Philo for what it’s worth beat meadowbrook 14-0 after 2 quarters. They’ll find out where they are week 2 against a D3 regional semi final team that returns a good core from last season. Meadowbrook should win the MVL small school and make it in and will be a tough out. St C will be there and I’m sure won’t be a push over. I believe Carrollton has some returning players from a team that beat Marion Franklin in Columbus after a long bus ride so they could make some noise. Should be a competitive region after the first round. I look for BC and JG to play for a regional title unless they have to play sooner than that. Whoever wins should be able to compete with the other regions unlike the rest of the state thinks.


GalliaTribe
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Re: preseason region 15 playoff projections

Post by GalliaTribe »

I think it will be Licking Valley, but don’t sleep on St. Clairsville.


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 1

Post by svac83 »

updated after week1


Jokerswild
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 1

Post by Jokerswild »

What are you using to come up with the point total? Are you just looking at there schedule and picking wins or is there a computer system that you run?


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 1

Post by svac83 »

I look at there schedules and our their opponents schedules. i am not running a computer simulation. but i do use historical data and point differentials. then adjust future game results based on if your team seems to be performing above or below their historical averages. in some cases especially without of state teams i have to forecast it is just a hunch. history tells me by about week 6 i become pretty accurate.

I just like to mess with spreadsheets and do the math and projections.


superblue
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 1

Post by superblue »

Enjoy your projections. What do you believe the records for the bottom 4 teams of the region will be? Do you know if the week 2 games will be played at a neutral site.


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 1

Post by svac83 »

I will probably start posting projected records next week but there will be at least 1 5-5 or 4-6 team get in that I am seeing. I think by week 5 probably at least 8 teams will have basically clicnched if not before.

And I need to recheck but I do believe the first two rounds are at the hire seed


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 2

Post by svac83 »

updated after week 2


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 3

Post by svac83 »

updated after week 3


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 3

Post by svac83 »

a lot of teams that needed a win friday night got one. john glenn with a big points win. Carrolton, union local and highland all with games they needed to win. i am beginning to think the bottom few seeds of this region may not be as bad as i thought. traditionally you have needed in between. 6.5 pts to 7.9 computer points to finish 16th in this region. this could push up closer to 9 or 9.5 pts.


Geronimo
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 3

Post by Geronimo »

GA won't make the playoffs


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 3

Post by svac83 »

Geronimo wrote: Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:30 pm GA won't make the playoffs
as of right now Gallia academy would make it in even if they finished 5-4


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 4

Post by svac83 »

updated after week 4


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NewEra
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 4

Post by NewEra »

Cambridge will be A LOT higher than 16, they are every bit as good as Meadowbrook.


svac83
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Re: region 15 playoff projections after week 4

Post by svac83 »

NewEra wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:46 am Cambridge will be A LOT higher than 16, they are every bit as good as Meadowbrook.
there schedule really works against them. you are going to have wins against indian creek, coshocton, beechcroft, martins ferry, st, thomas aquainis, warren and marietta. that is 7 wins right now those 7 teams are a combined 6 wins 22 loses. i have those teams finishing 12 wins and 58 losses. if that hold true you are going to be one of the bottom 4 seeds unless you beat bellaire or st. clairsville. you beat one of those teams and you will be much higher.


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