Region 11 2022

cavsfuhball
Riding the Bench
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:33 am

Region 11 2022

Post by cavsfuhball »

This seems like a solid region. There are currently 12 teams at 3-1 or better. (heading into game 5) Then Jackson, London and Miami Trace (among others) sit at 2-2 who are all good programs and I expect to be a tough first round matchup with anybody.

I haven't seen a lot of these teams play, but have to guess Granville is still the favorite after a 4-0 start and reaching the final four in 2021. Who else do we like coming out of this region?


cavsfuhball
Riding the Bench
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:33 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by cavsfuhball »

Current Standings:
Attachments
Screenshot 2022-09-16 102719.jpg


muskiefan11
JV Team
Posts: 375
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:23 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by muskiefan11 »

At the halfway point it appears TV, Bloom-Carroll, and Granville are probably the favorites to be in the top 4.
Then you have Cols. South, Sheridan, Chili, Washington, Watterson, Jackson, Bellefontaine, and Alder battling for the 4-12.

My guess would be the FAC winner (Jackson, Chili, or Washington), Watterson, Sheridan, or South are the leaders of that group.

After that you have a mess of teams trying get to 5-5 and have a chance. This region is very deep at the upper middle level and I believe there will be some good round 1 games in that 5-12 range with multiple potential upsets depending on the matchups.

Looking at Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 5-5 gives you a chance.
Last edited by muskiefan11 on Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.


muskiefan11
JV Team
Posts: 375
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:23 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by muskiefan11 »

Playoff “Locks”
TV’s only remaining challenge is Sheridan so at worst they will be 8-2.
Granville has Watterson but other than that should be 9-1 barring any surprises.
South is a wildcard, their schedule appears pretty weak so they could enter undefeated.
Chillicothe, Jackson, and Washington have the FAC gauntlet that could mix things up.
Sheridan has TV and New Lex in weeks 9 and 10, could enter 9-1 or 7-3 at the worst.
Watterson has tough games remaining vs Granville, Hartley, and DeSales. Will be battle-tested and could be underseeded depending on those games.
Bloom-Carroll should have no trouble in the MSL.
Don’t know much about Bellefontaine but a 10 point loss to perennial power Coldwater could be an indication of how good they are.
Alder and London are good competitive programs every year and should make the playoffs.

Playoff Hopefuls:
Zanesville doesn’t appear to have beaten a good team yet, still has a tough remaining schedule.
Circleville and Whitehall appear to be products of weak schedules to this point.
Miami Trace has lots of potential playoff points on the table if they can beat the likes of Jackson, Washington and Chillicothe.
Not sure of the Columbus City league schools, looks Beechcroft and Linden McKinley have the potential to win some games the rest of the way.
JG has some potential wins on the table outside of TV that could help them squeak in.
Marietta hasn’t beaten a good team, would be surprised if they get to 5-5.
Bexley, Athens, and Centennial need to pull some upsets and run the table.


muskiefan11
JV Team
Posts: 375
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:23 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by muskiefan11 »

Here’s how Pasteur has playoff probabilities through week 6:
Locks 99%+
Jackson, TV, Granville, BC, Chilli, Watterson, Washington, Sheridan, London, Bellefontaine.

Strong Contenders (80-98%)
5-0 South 98% (need 5-4)
4-2 Alder 94% (need 4-6)
3-2 Beechcroft 91% (need 5-4)

Contenders (20-79%)
3-2 Hamilton Twp 74% (need 5-4)
3-3 Zanesville 54% (need 5-5)
4-2 Whitehall 52% (need 6-4)
2-4 Miami Trace 42% (bubble if 4-6)
4-2 Circleville 37% (bubble if 6-4)
2-4 John Glenn 31% (bubble if 5-5)
3-2 Linden McKinley 25% (need 5-4)

Longshots (<2%)
Marietta

Eliminated
Athens
Bexley
Centennial
Last edited by muskiefan11 on Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.


Maga2022
Waterboy
Posts: 14
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2022 4:45 pm

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by Maga2022 »

Good post Muskiefan. That explains the possiblities.


teach1coach2
All State
Posts: 1255
Joined: Fri Nov 28, 2008 11:11 pm

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by teach1coach2 »

Bellefontaine is one of the top teams in the region. Pretty much the whole team back from last year. Obviously Granville is for real. As a fan of a region 11 team, hoping not to see either of them week 11 or 12.


cavsfuhball
Riding the Bench
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:33 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by cavsfuhball »

After week 5:
Attachments
week5.jpg


countywide35
SEOP
Posts: 4741
Joined: Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:38 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by countywide35 »

expected 1/2way thru.

Should be a interesting remaining 5weeks


2019 FAC Football Pick’Em Champion
cavsfuhball
Riding the Bench
Posts: 57
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:33 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by cavsfuhball »

Obviously things will change in the second half of the season, but this is how the region bracket would shake out right now. Some very interesting matchups.
Attachments
Bracket.jpg


muskiefan11
JV Team
Posts: 375
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:23 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by muskiefan11 »

muskiefan11 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:07 pm Here’s how Pasteur has playoff probabilities through week 6:
Locks 99%+
Jackson, TV, Granville, BC, Chilli, Watterson, Washington, Sheridan, London, Bellefontaine.

Strong Contenders (80-98%)
5-0 South 98% (need 5-4)
4-2 Alder 94% (need 4-6)
3-2 Beechcroft 91% (need 5-4)

Contenders (20-79%)
3-2 Hamilton Twp 74% (need 5-4)
3-3 Zanesville 54% (need 5-5)
4-2 Whitehall 52% (need 6-4)
2-4 Miami Trace 42% (bubble if 4-6)
4-2 Circleville 37% (bubble if 6-4)
2-4 John Glenn 31% (bubble if 5-5)
3-2 Linden McKinley 25% (need 5-4)

Longshots (<2%)
Marietta

Eliminated
Athens
Bexley
Centennial
Updated after week 6


MT1996
Waterboy
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:33 pm

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by MT1996 »

cavsfuhball wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:08 am Obviously things will change in the second half of the season, but this is how the region bracket would shake out right now. Some very interesting matchups.
When did OHSAA move from 12 team to 16 team playoff? What year?


Rolltanks
All Conference
Posts: 881
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by Rolltanks »

MT1996 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:24 pm
cavsfuhball wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:08 am Obviously things will change in the second half of the season, but this is how the region bracket would shake out right now. Some very interesting matchups.
When did OHSAA move from 12 team to 16 team playoff? What year?
Went from 8 to everyone for Covid then to 16 never been 12


teach1coach2
All State
Posts: 1255
Joined: Fri Nov 28, 2008 11:11 pm

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by teach1coach2 »

The Coaches Association pushed for it to go from 8 to 12 teams after 2019 season. Then covid hit (2020). 2020 everyone who wanted in got in. The OHSAA decided to take the coaches association proposal, but remove the bye week proposed for teams #1-#4 and made it 16 teams per region instead of the proposed 12.


muskiefan11
JV Team
Posts: 375
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:23 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by muskiefan11 »

muskiefan11 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:07 pm Here’s how Pasteur has playoff probabilities through week 6:
Locks 99%+
Jackson, TV, Granville, BC, Chilli, Watterson, Washington, Sheridan, London, Bellefontaine.

Strong Contenders (80-98%)
5-0 South 98% (need 5-4)
4-2 Alder 94% (need 4-6)
3-2 Beechcroft 91% (need 5-4)

Contenders (20-79%)
3-2 Hamilton Twp 74% (need 5-4)
3-3 Zanesville 54% (need 5-5)
4-2 Whitehall 52% (need 6-4)
2-4 Miami Trace 42% (bubble if 4-6)
4-2 Circleville 37% (bubble if 6-4)
2-4 John Glenn 31% (bubble if 5-5)
3-2 Linden McKinley 25% (need 5-4)

Longshots (<2%)
Marietta

Eliminated
Athens
Bexley
Centennial
Week 7 Takeaways:
Winner of TV and Sheridan in Week 9 could decide the 1 seed;can Jackson run the table and take the 1?
Is Watterson the Title favorite? Bellefontaine?
Granville not as good as advertised? Two L’s in a row.
Who wins the FAC? Chillicothe, Jackson, and Washington are on a collision course.
How good is BC? Seem to be unchallenged outside of Harvest Prep in week 1, next closest game was a 12 point win over JG who is not very good.
Can London and/or Alder make noise?
How good is South? Got blown out by D2 Independence.
Who gets the final spots? Everyone in contenders category took an L this week except Hamilton Twp. HT appears to take the 14th which leaves 2 “open” spots.
This region is very deep and there doesn’t seem to be any clear front runner.


mackdog
Freshman Team
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:01 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by mackdog »

Very deep region! I still believe Granville is very much in the mix. Last night they lost to Watterson 25-24. Tri Valley beat Licking Heights 27-21 who beat Granville 28-18. If Jackson plays a clean game does TV beat them ? Is Sheridan for real? Lots of interesting results to think about. I feel like Watterson is in the driver's seat on paper. I'd rank the top 5 in order of ability to win the region like this.

1. Watterson
2. Jackson
3. Granville
4. Tri-Valley
5. Sheridan


muskiefan11
JV Team
Posts: 375
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:23 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by muskiefan11 »

mackdog wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:26 pm Very deep region! I still believe Granville is very much in the mix. Last night they lost to Watterson 25-24. Tri Valley beat Licking Heights 27-21 who beat Granville 28-18. If Jackson plays a clean game does TV beat them ? Is Sheridan for real? Lots of interesting results to think about. I feel like Watterson is in the driver's seat on paper. I'd rank the top 5 in order of ability to win the region like this.

1. Watterson
2. Jackson
3. Granville
4. Tri-Valley
5. Sheridan
I agree with that top 5. I think Bellefontaine could be a team to watch out for, their only Loss was 31-21 to d5 perennial power Coldwater.


mackdog
Freshman Team
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:01 am

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by mackdog »

muskiefan11 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:40 pm
mackdog wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:26 pm Very deep region! I still believe Granville is very much in the mix. Last night they lost to Watterson 25-24. Tri Valley beat Licking Heights 27-21 who beat Granville 28-18. If Jackson plays a clean game does TV beat them ? Is Sheridan for real? Lots of interesting results to think about. I feel like Watterson is in the driver's seat on paper. I'd rank the top 5 in order of ability to win the region like this.

1. Watterson
2. Jackson
3. Granville
4. Tri-Valley
5. Sheridan
I agree with that top 5. I think Bellefontaine could be a team to watch out for, their only Loss was 31-21 to d5 perennial power Coldwater.
Honestly, I overlooked Bellefontaine. Don't know much about them. I see They have a common opponent with Granville and Tri-Valley.

Bellefontaine 28 Licking Heights 13
Tri-Valley 27 Licking Heights 21
Licking Heights 28 Granville 18


teach1coach2
All State
Posts: 1255
Joined: Fri Nov 28, 2008 11:11 pm

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by teach1coach2 »

1. Bellefontaine
2a. Watterson
2b. FAC Champion (likely Jackson)
2c. MVL Champions (likely Tri-Valley)
5. Granville


User avatar
Raider6309
SEOPS HOF
Posts: 12909
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:00 pm
Location: Athens

Re: DIII Region 11

Post by Raider6309 »

1. Bellefontaine
2. Watterson
3. Granville
4. Jackson
5. Bloom Carroll
6. Tri Valley
7. Chillicothe
8. Sheridan


Post Reply

Return to “Football”