Marshall vs. #23 WVU

[Raiderball]

^^^^ obviously dublin this is your opinion. you present no facts to back up your comment.

[hdfatboy]

Of the 6 BCS conferences, the Big East is #6.
If we throw in the Mountain West, the Big East would likely fall to 7th.

This year the Big East is currently 6th - in both RPI and Sagarin the Big East has been higher than 6th in the last 5 years - and these rankings include the Mountain West (as well as every other Div. I) conference.

Here are the Sagarin ratings from today, with the Big East 6th, ahead of the Mountain West:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc10.htm

Here they are from January 2010 with the Big East ranked 2nd:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc09.htm

Current RPI with the Big East at 6th ahead of the Mountain West (and links to previous years):

http://realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_conf_Men.html

In 09 the RPI has the BE 2nd. In 08 the BE is 3rd, 07 it's 3rd, and 06 it's 1st.

Obviously there is no 100% accurate way of stating which conference is the strongest - but there is no objective evidence that says the Big East is the weakling of major college conferences.

I'll give you that this year is certainly looking bad for the Big East so far, but in the previous 4 don't look too bad at all.

[seofan_via_dublin]

All you have to do is watch the games.

It's not about the stats or the worthless Sagarin ratings.
It's the "Eye Test".

You watch the games and you clearly see that the Big East is a lower level brand of football.

[Peake]

HD,

You have great information and I appreciate your opinion. I agree with a good deal of it.

One problem. The Michigan is bigger comment. Michigan also has 5 d1 programs in the state. So I don't feel your analogy on that computes.

[Raiderball]

"worthless sagarin ratings".... until those ratings favor your team/conference they are worthless?

Don't let stats get in the way of your opinion there dublin

[seofan_via_dublin]

I don't pay any attention to Jeff Sagarin.
He has a computer, and a wacky formula.

I watch games.

[hdfatboy]

HD,

You have great information and I appreciate your opinion. I agree with a good deal of it.

One problem. The Michigan is bigger comment. Michigan also has 5 d1 programs in the state. So I don't feel your analogy on that computes.

Peake - even with 5 DI programs - Michigan still has 2 million people per program - there aren't even 2 million people in WV! We have less than a million per D1 stadium!

Basically, what I was saying is that the population Michigan has to draw it's fan base from is much bigger than WVU's. Heck, the population of Ann Arbor alone would fill Michigan's stadium...while the population of Morgantown would only fill WVU's stadium to half-capacity.

Of course, you probably would also add Western PA into WVU's fanbase population...but then you're fighting for Pitt and Penn State fans...so it isn't a perfect equation.

Anyway, you're absolutely right that Michigan has a bigger (and better in terms of filling a stadium) fan base than WVU - but WVU isn't quite as bad off as you have been making it seem. We generally sell out our season tickets, and we come within a few thousand of filling the stadium for every game....we just don't have a rabid enough fanbase for everyone to get in the stadium or get rid of their ticket at the last minute to someone who wants to go to the game. No-shows and late arrivals hurt our attendance figures.

Dubs - of course an "eye-test" might require not watching through Scarlett (and Gray) colored glasses. You gotta hate those pesky computer rankings that attempt to see through people's biases.

[Peake]

I still don't think your analogy is accurate. 1 million are in Detriot, so that leaves another million to cover the entire state. Like I said, there are 5 d1 programs, there are a lot of Toledo, OSU, and Notre Dame alums in Michigan as well.

I promise I am not painting any picture of your fan base. If any fans base doesn't show up, then it is their own fault, regardless of who it is. Michigan sold out 3 years ago when they played NW in 19 degree weather with 30mph winds. I am not saying Michigan has the best fan base, but I don't do excuses.

I would probably include some of eastern Maryland in that equation as well.

[hdfatboy]

I still don't think your analogy is accurate. 1 million are in Detriot, so that leaves another million to cover the entire state. Like I said, there are 5 d1 programs, there are a lot of Toledo, OSU, and Notre Dame alums in Michigan as well.

I promise I am not painting any picture of your fan base. If any fans base doesn't show up, then it is their own fault, regardless of who it is. Michigan sold out 3 years ago when they played NW in 19 degree weather with 30mph winds. I am not saying Michigan has the best fan base, but I don't do excuses.

I would probably include some of eastern Maryland in that equation as well.

Peake - the population of the state of Michigan is 10 million - not 2 million - that's 2 million per stadium for your 5 D1 schools.

Again - the argument about the stands being filled was originally about money in ticket sales - my point is that the tickets are usually sold at WVU (unless the away team returns their allotment). The seats aren't always getting filled - although we usually come pretty close and sometimes go over.

Regarding filling seats - in 2009 WVU had one SRO game and it's worst attended game was the Marshall game with about 9% of the seats empty at game time (not unsold). For the majority of other games the no-show rate is less than 5%. I don't know what the capacity of Michigan's stadium was last year, but the attendace ranges from 106,000 to almost 111,000 - so either they were all SRO, or you had some games when not every seat was filled.

(It is interesting to note that in 2007 the only WVU home game that wasn't at capacity was the UConn game. There has been some fan dissatisfaction since then.)

When you say "well we got 100,000 people in the stands for Delaware State" - part of that (not all of it) is definitely that you have a much larger population to draw from - hence the discussion of how many people live in your university's region and the competition for tickets sales on Saturdays. Yes, you could include Western Maryland in WVU's geographic area - but unless you think of Cumberland as a thriving metropolis you aren't adding a lot of people to the equation. To be fair, we get a lot of out of town fans from DC and Virginia. Yes - you have alums from other colleges living in Michigan..but you have that in WV as well....heck, I am a Cincinnati alumni and my wife is a Wake Forest grad....Michigan still has a much greater population to draw from each weekend.

The point regarding population is still valid - more people means more people to put in the stands and more people watching TVs - it's one of the reason they don't put NFL franchises in WV or Nebraska.

[Peake]

UCLA capacity is 92,500....they did not hit it one time last season and they only had 46,000 for the ASU game. How many people are there in California again?

[Peake]

population of AA is 114,000, Metro Morgantown is 118,000. Just saying.

Only people to blame are the fans.

[hdfatboy]

population of AA is 114,000, Metro Morgantown is 118,000. Just saying.

Only people to blame are the fans.

That's two counties combined...if we're going to do that than we have to add Detroit to the Ann Arbor population - cuz the population of Morgantown in only 26,000.

Washtenaw County Michigan has over 322,000 living in it....and Wayne County has almost 2 million. Still much, much bigger than Michigan's Stadium...and more than the entire population of WV.

Your UCLA point is very valid, not every team with lots of population to draw from is filling its stadium like Michigan. The even better part about UCLA is that they aren't even competing with an NFL franchise for ticket dollars. An even better example is that Nebraska (a state with roughly the population of WV) has sold out its stadium for almost 50 straight years.

I'll go back to my original point though - WVU does a pretty good job of filling its stadium given the size of its potential fanbase, and that filling the stadium does not necessarily mean that the seats aren't sold.