Gee: B1G will expand to 16-20 schools

[NYBuckeye96]

http://buckeyextra.dispatch.com/content ... nsion.html

College athletics: More Big Ten expansion in the works?

By Bill Rabinowitz
The Columbus Dispatch•Friday January 25, 2013 11:42 AM

Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee told the school’s Athletic Council in December that discussions about further expansion for the Big Ten conference are “ongoing.”

In November, the league announced the addition of Maryland from the Atlantic Coast Conference and Rutgers from the Big East. Nebraska joined the Big Ten for the 2011-12 school year after leaving the Big 12.

It doesn’t appear that the Big Ten necessarily is content to stay at 14 members. According to the minutes of the Dec. 5 Athletic Council meeting obtained by The Dispatch, Gee said “there has been ongoing discussion” about expansion and “believes there is movement towards three or four super conferences that are made up of 16-20 teams.”

When a student member of the Athletic Council asked Gee what direction the Big Ten might take, Gee said “there are opportunities to move further south in the (E)ast and possibly a couple of Midwest universities.”

He did not specify any potential targets but said they will make sure any new school has “like-minded academic integrity.”

The Athletic Council is expected to recommend formally today an increase in Ohio State football ticket prices from $70 to $79 with the addition of "premier" games that would cost significantly more. The board of trustees is expected to vote on the proposal late next week.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

i don't like it myself.

[run-n-gun]

I expect potential targets to be the likes of Georgia Tech, Virginia or Virginia Tech, a package deal of Duke and UNC or maybe even a Kansas or Louisville. It's hard telling exactly who they would go after. Just some thoughts. Didn't exactly see Maryland and Rutgers coming until it was announced.

[EasternDspy]

No I doubt schools that just left would leave to another conf so quickly. I think B12 will be evaporating soon within next 5 years. Schools that could come next Iowa St, Uconn, and Cincy.Future candidates might included Kansas, Kansas St, and WVU.

[seofan_via_dublin]

Georgia Tech and UVA will be part of future expansion.

[run-n-gun]

Georgia Tech is the most desirable to me. It brings in the Atlanta market and the south. It's just finding someone to come with GT for geographical reasons. That's where I think Virginia, Duke and UNC could come in handy.

If you had those 18 schools, you could play out divisions by geography, which is the most logical regardless. An East and West.

East: GT, Duke, UNC, Virginia, Marlyand, Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State.
West: Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Again, this is all just thoughts of what could be. There's also the potential of taking Iowa State, Kansas, Connecticut and say Virginia Tech. This would allow the conference to expand both east and west.

[run-n-gun]

The B1G could also pick apart the Big 12 if desired. As earlier mentioned, WVU, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State would be a nice package. But I don't think those schools bring much market and what is their academics? The B1G is interesting when it comes to expanding.

[NYBuckeye96]

The Big Ten needs direct access to recruits from the "Big 3" ----- Texas, Florida and California.

The Big Ten is the only top conference with no members in those states.

Is there a way to recruit at least one of those 3 states strongly without having a conference member in that state? The million dollar question.



Other thoughts to consider.......

Within the next 30 years or so, Georgia AND North Carolina are projected to surpass Ohio in population. The numbers will probably be more dramatic at the under 18 levels, as Ohio's average age will almost certainly be much higher than the average age of someone in North Carolina or Georgia at that point in time.


Most logical move........Virginia. While not a football powerhouse by any means, Virginia is the only state that currently borders a Big Ten state that is experiencing decent population growth. Kansas and Missouri do nothing in terms of future population growth, as they are in the same boat as the rest of the Big Ten states in terms of population projections. If either are added, it would have to be for their brands, like Nebraska. Especially with Kansas. Bonus points for Virginia --- very large alumni base in NYC, which would further help to capture the NYC market.

Iowa State and Pitt do not expand the geographic footprint.

Even though its not AAU, I would have to think the dark horse in all of this could be Florida State. FSU clearly wants out of the ACC. The SEC clearly does not want FSU because it has Florida and wouldn't be extending a geographic footprint. Having BTN in every household in Florida would rack in serious money. Not to mention, the Big Ten would have an anchor member in one of the fastest growing states in the nation. From what I've read, FSU is boarderline qualified for AAU status.

If the Big Ten added Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida State, the B1G would never have to worry about demographics ever again. Give the East Division the NYC/DC markets and give the West Division the Florida/Georgia markets. Play 10 conference games in football to keep the west teams in NYC/DC and the East teams in Georgia/Florida on a rotating basis.

Increased exposure and recruiting will help our mid-level teams rise to the top. You would have to think a conference of Ohio State - Michigan - Penn State - Nebraska - Florida State would almost always have AT LEAST one of them challenging for a national championship every year.

Checkmate.

[NYBuckeye96]

Another reason we need to expand to the south.............

With less than 48 hours to go before signing day, the SEC has 5 of the top 10 recruiting classes and 9 of the top 20, according to Rivals.com.

We need those southern recruits if we expect teams not named Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska to break through and win a national championship.

Heck, we need those southern recruits for those 4 teams to win another championship for that matter.

[run-n-gun]

I really like the thoughts of Virginia, UNC, Georgia Tech and Florida State. These schools also bring more than just football.
If I'm correct, which I may not be, these schools have terrific baseball programs, UNC and Virginia are great at lacrosse, soccer is pretty good amongst these schools as well. This could really help the conference become more rounded in all sports.

This also helps with divisional alignment as well.
East- Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State.
West- Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa

I think the East would be much tougher in football.

The only thing I don't like about this is the conference schedule. Best off to get 20 teams and 2 divisions, then play 9 conference games against your division with the division winners playing for the conference title. In that case, switch Michigan and Michigan State in divisions to keep The Game.

[NYBuckeye96]

Lots of internet chatter in the last day.............The guy who first broke the story that Maryland and Rutgers would join the B1G is now reporting that North Carolina has an offer to join the conference.......

http://saturdayblitz.com/2013/02/19/unc ... t-be-next/

UNC Football: Tar Heels Reportedly Offered To Join Big Ten, Virginia Might Be Next


Feb 19th, 2013 at 7:40 pm by Carlos Sandoval

The Big Ten has undergone quite the expansion in the past few months, and have now added North Carolina to the list of schools it wants to bring aboard.

According to Jeff Ermann of 247Sports.com’s Maryland site, UNC has an offer to join the Big Ten, with Virginia and Georgia Tech being eyeballed aggressively:

@insidemdsports


Big 10 talk buzzing again. #UVA being mentioned often as likely to join. Georgia Tech still in the mix. #UNC, the big domino, has an offer.

6:04 PM - 19 Feb 13

186 Retweets 12 favorites

This is a hell of an expansion that the Big Ten is under-taking. The conference has already added Maryland and Rutgers starting in 2014 — additions that a good chunk of current fans of the conference aren’t too happy with — and looks to be ready to poach the ACC until they’re dry, having already taken UMD.

Conference realignment is generally one big mess that no one can keep up with, and reports like these surface regularly, so it’s not as if this is definitive.

That said, 24/7 Sports has a reputation for breaking these conference realignment deals, and specifically, Ermann was right about Maryland eventually joining the Big Ten.

If this is true, the addition of North Carolina should be one that fans of the conference will be excited about: UNC is a college basketball blue-blood joining the best conference in college basketball, while the Tar Heels’ football program is considered to be a sleeping giant, with new head coach Larry Fedora making strides in his first season.

However, this is also contingent on UNC’s willingness to leave the ACC, but it’s also a real possibility considering the state of the conference with the Big Ten poaching the way it is at the present moment.

Whatever happens, we’re sure that the Big Ten isn’t about to stop expanding anytime soon.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

THERE WAS A LINK ON FACEBOOK TODAY SAYING NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WERE BEING INVITED , I'D LOVE TO SEE FLORIDA STATE IN THE SOMEHOW, GET MORE FLORIDA FLAVOR IN THERE, AND RECRUITING.

[NYBuckeye96]

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/b1g-expansio ... ch-edition

B1G Expansion Dollars: The Research Edition



By MosherJordan — February 19th, 2013 at 12:52 PM— 31 comments .


There has been a lot of talk about the sense, or nonsense, of adding Rutgers and Maryland to the B1G in 2014 from a purely athletic point of view (verdict: non-sense), and also from a BTN TV market point of view (verdict: debatable). Whether the strategy will pan out or not, the consensus seems to be that this was all about adding TV dollars and sets, and any future expansion should be viewed through the lens of TV markets and how they may affect BTN revenues. While all this discussion has merit, it misses an important aspect of conference expansion. The impact of expansion on the ability to influence the allocation of federal research dollars to the B1G member schools has monetary implications that dwarf the potential for increased athletic dept. revenues. Whatever the designs of Jim Delaney are as the head of an athletic conference, I think conference expansion decisions are occurring well above his head, and seem to be driven by university presidents with research dollars in mind. When you consider the figures, it’s easy to see why. According to a 2010 NSF report (Link), universities and colleges received $32.5 billion dollars from the federal government in support of science and engineering research, with roughly 60% of that money going to Association of American Universities (AAU) members. That the AAU gets a big slice is not too surprising, as the AAU is a who’s who of research universities, but it also operates a powerful lobbying arm that works to ensure that its members get significantly more money from the federal government than the average school.

The Council for Intercollegiate Cooperation (CIC) is what makes AAU membership so important for B1G expansion targets to possess. B1G membership is synonymous with CIC membership, with all B1G schools plus University of Chicago being members of the CIC. With the exception of Nebraska, all CIC members are AAU members (and Nebraska was an AAU school at the time the B1G voted to add it as a 12thmember, only loosing membership in 2011). CIC members share research resources, but more importantly, they also form a powerful subgroup within the AAU. This is where conference expansion and the AAU come together. Adding established AAU members can increase the CIC’s powerbase within the AAU. With $20 billion dollars in annual research dollars at stake, it only takes a little extra power to put a billion a year in extra research dollars into CIC hands, a figure four times the revenue of the BTN. With this in mind, I wanted to put together a research dollar influence score that could be used to rank the attractiveness of existing AAU members to the CIC via B1G expansion.

In theory, federal agencies use a non-partisan peer review process to allocate research money (think national academy of science). However, the reviewers who serve on agency committees come from the very universities they are tasked with allocating money to. Strong representation on these committees provides one means for the CIC to influence where federal research dollars go, so a stronger CIC from a purely academic research reputation basis means more opportunity to direct dollars back to the CIC. One component of my research dollar influence score is then formed by taking the annual Times Higher Education–QS World University Rankingsscore for each AAU member as a percentage of the sum of all scores. Unlike US News & World Report, the Times ranking is explicitly based on faculty research reputation. This gives each school a measure of relative academic clout within a group of heavyweights. It’s good to think of the research score like a recruiting team score. A school like Harvard is like USC’s class this year, full of five stars but a smaller overall size, while an Ohio State is like Texas A&M, not so loaded at the top end, but it makes up for it in class size. The Ole Miss of the group is Johns Hopkins, because not unlike recruiting, when it comes to federal research dollar allocation, it’s good to have powerful boosters, and Johns Hopkins has some of the best boosters in government.

In practice, pure political favoritism exists, and can significantly influence where research dollars go, over and above what a straight peer review would dictate. In a 1996 study, a university of Illinois professor found that as much as 40% of federal research dollars are allocated on the basis of congressional constituency bias, with appropriation committee membership having disproportionate effect (Link). That senators and congressmen work to make sure their state institutions (both public and private) get a more than fair share of the pie should surprise no one. Therefore, the second component of my research dollar influence score comes from measuring the percentage of total AAU congressional and senate representation a school represents. Unlike a peer reputation score, this second dimension is not purely additive (adding a Pittsburgh does nothing to increase the government influence of the CIC, since Penn State already brings access to Pennsylvania’s representatives and senators).

The average of these two relative power scores is what I’ll use as a research dollar influence score. The max score is 100%, and would represent the entire AAU acting as a whole, and the score for each expansion target represents the value of forming an alliance with that target. Before looking at expansion targets beyond Maryland and Rutgers, let’s apply the research dollar influence score to the AAU to see how power is distributed. Chart?

Chart.



AAU Subgroup

Govt Influence

Peer Review Influence

Combined Influence



CIC + UMD, RT

37%

22%

29%



CIC

30%

19%

25%



PAC 12 + CA

23%

23%

23%



Ivy + MA

23%

19%

21%



Ivy

23%

14%

18%



PAC 12

23%

14%

18%



ACC + Maryland

22%

9%

16%



ACC

20%

8%

14%



CA

10%

17%

14%



SEC

20%

5%

12%



B12

12%

4%

8%



NY

6%

9%

8%



MA

3%

7%

5%


Before adding Maryland and Rutgers, the CIC held a slim edge over the PAC 12 and Ivy League, with that lead narrowed when other CA and MA schools are lumped in with the PAC 12 and Ivy League, respectively. The ACC runs a respectable fourth, though replacing Maryland with Louisville hurts, while the SEC and Big 12 wield little influence. CA, NY and MA are powerful standalone states from a peer review influence score, but fall short on government influence. This is true even of CA, which has 53 congressional reps, but still only 2 senators, while the combined CIC footprint brings in 95 congressmen and 16 senators. When Maryland and Rutgers join in 2014, the CIC adds another 20 congressional districts and 4 senate seats. Also, peer review influence is additive, and while neither Rutgers nor Maryland is at the level of a Michigan, they are solid additions. The combined effect is to create a noticeable power gap between the CIC and its west coast and northeastern rivals. As an added bonus, Rutgers and Maryland both have senators sitting on the appropriations committee, with the senior senator from Maryland being the chair. Even if it doesn’t make you feel any better about it, maybe at least now the real value of adding Rutgers and Maryland becomes clear.

Turning to expansion targets, I’ll stick to existing AAU members, with a few exceptions. I list Nebraska and Syracuse as they are schools that only recently lost AAU membership, and may very well regain it. I also list Florida State since it is a school that has potential to obtain it, and is located in a congressionally rich state. John Hopkins is on the list because there have been rumors that the B1G might add it as an associate member in lacrosse. Just so we’re clear, if Johns Hopkins does become a lacrosse only member, it’ll be because of the CIC, not lacrosse.



AAU Member

Govt Influence

Peer Review Influence

Combined Influence



Texas

7.5%

1.8%

4.7%



Florida State

6.1%

1.0%

3.5%



Syracuse

6.1%

1.0%

3.5%



Georgia Tech

4.1%

1.9%

3.0%



Duke

3.9%

1.9%

2.9%



North Carolina

3.9%

1.7%

2.8%



Rutgers

3.7%

1.4%

2.6%



Virginia

3.6%

1.2%

2.4%



Maryland

3.1%

1.3%

2.2%



Missouri

3.1%

0.8%

2.0%



Kansas

2.5%

0.7%

1.6%



Nebraska

2.3%

0.7%

1.5%



Johns Hopkins

0.0%

2.1%

1.0%



Pittsburgh

0.0%

1.5%

0.7%



Iowa State

0.0%

1.0%

0.5%


Missouri isn’t leaving the SEC, but this chart shows why the B1G was happy to limit raiding of the Big 12 to Nebraska, which wasn’t that exciting as a CIC addition, but was a legit premium football brand. It also explains why Jim Delaney dropped his unrequited love affair with Notre Dame for one with Texas faster than a teenage girl changing boy bands. After Texas, Florida State and Syracuse would be attractive additions, but they only have AAU potential, not current membership. FSU might have a strong enough football brand to add, but I don’t think it’s a given that the B1G would take them without AAU status. With it, Florida State would be the clear top next choice. This leaves Georgia Tech, Duke/North Carolina, and Virginia as targets, with Syracuse and Florida State in play only if the B1G goes to 20 and can afford to take a gamble.

Finally, the last chart shows how the relative influence of the CIC within the AAU compares after successively adding Rutgers and Maryland, then Georgia Tech, UVA, and Johns Hopkins, and finally UNC and Duke. The power shift is significant with each addition, and it could very likely mean an increase in research dollars to the CIC that exceeds current BTN revenues to the conference; 500 million to a billion dollars wouldn’t be a stretch.



AAU Subgroup

Govt Influence

Peer Review Influence

Combined Influence



CIC + UNC, Duke

44%

29%

36%



CIC + GT, UVA, JH

40%

26%

33%



CIC + UMD, RT

37%

22%

29%



CIC

30%

19%

25%



PAC 12 + CA

23%

23%

23%



Ivy + MA

23%

19%

21%


I’ve highlighted the research dollar influence gain by pursuing an expansion strategy that cannibalizes the ACC. Of course, the benefits of expanding the footprint into ACC territory in terms of adding possibly lucrative TV markets and of strengthening connections to fertile football recruiting grounds also must be considered, and when taken together with the research dollar picture, makes it clear why the B1G is set on taking a big bite out of the ACC, and why the ACC is fighting the Maryland defection as hard as it can. Without a massive exit fee, the ACC is as good as dead.

On final parting thought. The question of why it would be necessary for the CIC to use the B1G as a vehicle for expansion, and why it couldn’t just expand without the athletic associations is one that is best answered by the Iran nuclear program. The façade of an athletic motivation for the expansion provides the plausible deniability the CIC needs to increase power without creating any outright rifts in the AAU. It provides the means to strengthen alliances without being overt about it.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

dang hoss.

[NYBuckeye96]

The Research blog makes a lot of sense.

Here is an article from a Penn State writer who argues against further expansion......namely, anti-North Carolina expansion......


http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/201 ... aroli.html

I'll believe North Carolina in B1G when I see it... and hope very much not to

By David Jones | djones@pennlive.com
on February 21, 2013


Once again, chatter has begun about Big Ten expansion. This time, it revolves around not neighbors from the Northeast but prospective acquisitions from foreign lands in the South.

Specifically, North Carolina and Georgia Tech.

I say acquisitions because if something like this actually happens, that's what it will be – a corporate merger. It will be a soulless takeover of neighborhoods in which the Big Ten has no relatives, no familiarity and no business being. It will be for money and money only.

Now, you could argue all of this is for money and you'd be right. The business of college football is about money, the recent flurry of expansions, cherry-picking of schools by stronger leagues and conference-hopping by anxious refugees is about money.

But if the richest of all college athletic leagues decides it will simply move into a foreign region and carve the heart from a 60-year-old conference, that's a hostile takeover.

North Carolina is the crown jewel of the Atlantic Coast Conference. If UNC goes, the ACC, at least in any recognizable form, dies. That's not speculation, that's a simple fact.

And that the presidents and commissioner of the ACC made the first such move in helping to dissolve the Big East a decade ago when it took Boston College, Virginia Tech and Miami will not rationalize the Big Ten's act as moral. It will only be equally reprehensible.

The difference is, this time the death of a conference will really hurt the people of the region who embody it. Big East football was a contrivance in an area where college athletics does not much matter. The ACC is a giant hardback volume of history. For the people of its heart, it's a piece of their heritage in a place where college athletics, especially basketball, very much does matter.

The Big Ten already plucked a chunk off the ACC's edge when Maryland officially bolted last fall. But it could easily be argued that UMd always felt like and was treated as an outlier in the Carolina-based conference. The people of Maryland will not suffer from this move.

Moreover, the Baltimore/DC area has a rich history of rivalry with many of the urban centers of Pennsylvania and the upper Midwest. The Orioles long battled the Tigers and Indians in the same MLB division. The Ravens are bitter rivals with the Steelers. The Redskins and Eagles have decades of history. Same goes for fellow emigre Rutgers from the Big East and the New York metro market.

That cousin-like relationship does not exist with North Carolina. The state has nothing in common with any part of the Big Ten. It doesn't belong.

Neither does Georgia. But one of the other yearly Big Ten expansion rumors beginning about five years ago has been Georgia Tech.

Both are merely attractive because of fresh recruiting territory and the lucrative cable television markets of Atlanta and the “Research Triangle” of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill.

You could not rationalize this any other way. It would be just a less consequential form of empire building. As ruthless and cynical and arrogant as any other in history. It's Great Britain in 19th Century Africa and the Middle East. It's the German Reich from Switzerland to the Ural Mountains of Russia. It's the ancient Romans from Syria to Mauritania.

And it will be doomed to the same failure.

Why? If the money's good for everyone, why can't it work? If so many Yankees now live in Atlanta and Raleigh, why won't these schools feel right at home? After all, money and success and lots of TV time makes everyone happy, right?

This is why: People belong with their own kind. And most Carolinians aren't transplanted New Yorkers and Ohioans working for GlaxoSmithKline. They are hot-weather-barbecued Southerners who grew up in the pines. They love their area's unique basketball heritage, they talk like Andy Griffith and see the world in different ways than we do. Many of them are wonderful people. My kid goes to camp in northwest North Carolina every year and I've met many of the locals.

But they do not belong in the Big Ten. And they will feel like the foreigners they will be if this expansion happens. Many Penn Staters still feel like strangers in the Midwestern conference next door two decades after its consummation. This will be exponentially less tolerable.

I don't have any reason other than the same rumors you hear to believe it actually will happen. Recent tweets credited to a 24/7 Sports website that covers Maryland said that an offer to North Carolina is on the table from Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, a UNC graduate who played basketball for Dean Smith.

I hope it's nothing but baseless hearsay. The same guy who is reporting that the B1G has offered UNC was the first to seriously suggest UMd would hop. Of course, Maryland is the school he covers, not North Carolina. That makes me suspicious.

Dual combinations pairing North Carolina and either Georgia Tech or Virginia are the most popular web fodder right now as the B1G's 15th and 16th members. UVa I could tolerate. It's at least congruous with Maryland and is a short hop from here. You could rationalize that, even in the birthplace of the Confederacy, Virginians have a few Northeastern sensibilities.

But Carolina is a partner that would never stick. A lot of these crazy partnerships defying geography won't. Whenever the march of technology makes cable TV revenue obsolete as a fiscal paradigm for college athletics, people are going to start looking around at the gerrymandered conference landscape, shake their heads and say, “What have we been thinking?”

I don't know what that model will be. Maybe some sort of 3-D air video we can scarcely imagine that appears like a hologram six feet in front of us. Maybe schools will all control their own video contracts and band together loosely, not as bargaining corporations but as competitive partners only.

I just know that then everyone will finally get back home to where they belong. I hope I live to see it.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

WOW, THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL LANDSCAPE IS A MESS.

[NYBuckeye96]

[Slim Jim]

WOW, THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL LANDSCAPE IS A MESS.

And you can thank your precious big ? conference for it!

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

HEY I'M JUST A FAN HOSS.

[YOU'RE TIGER BAIT]

slim if you read my previous posts on this you'd know i didn't like it. when they discussed addition, my 2 obvious choices wetre wvu, and notre dame. but i'm opposed to it, and have been all along.