Valenth's College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction for 11/29/22

[Valenth]

After all of that craziness... Heres my Thoughts.

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

5. Ohio State
6. Alabama

7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Kansas State
10. Utah

(This is before the end results of the Washington/Washington State Game)

The ONLY WAY Ohio State gets into the top 4 is if USC loses in the PAC12 Championship or TCU loses in the BIG XII Championship.

Not Sure if it's enough if Purdue or LSU pulls off Upsets... Its Possible but I'm Just not Sure.

ESPN showed Kirk Herbstreit's playoff prediction and he had Alabama ahead of Ohio State. He is out of his ever loving Mind. Ohio States only loss is to an Undefeated Team while Alabama Losses are to a 2 Loss Tennessee and a 3 Loss LSU who just Lost to a 7 LOSS Texas A&M team.

Thoughts?

[Omega]

The way things shook out yesterday, your top 4 are clear cut based on recency. Ohio State is a logical number 5 as they are the only one loss team other than USC, but I feel the Committee may drop them behind 2 loss Bama simply because how poorly they played yesterday.

As to chaos in the conference championship games, it is my belief that only SoCal is in a must win situation to stay in the playoffs. Georgia, Michigan, and TCU can afford to lose as long as they are not embarrassed.

As to our Buckeyes, they wound up tied for the 4th best record in the regular season, but the direction of OSU since their bye week culminating in yesterday's beat down will give the Committee pause on their ranking.

It has been a great regular season of college football. It has been good for the game to see teams rise up while some of the usual power teams falter.

[OHHS old timer]

Agree with the Top 4...I mentioned them in GameDay.

Ohio St and Alabama could be flipped for the reasons Omega mentioned.

With Oregon giving up 21 unanswered points to their rival Oregon St...that sets up a rematch in the PAC-12 Championship. USC vs Utah. The Utes won 43-42 when they went for 2. Hopefully it will be that close again!!

On a side note....A&M won their second conference game last night...Vandy won 2 conference games in a row before getting swamped by Tennessee. The Commodores had lost 26 straight prior to winning 2 in a row.

[Omega]

@Valenth ,

Ran across a interesting article tonight:

From MSN:

College Football World Is Furious With ESPN Tonight

It's safe to say the college football world is not happy with ESPN on Sunday night.

ESPN released its updated College Football Playoff projections on Sunday evening.

Ohio State, despite getting blown out by Michigan at home on Saturday, still has the third-best odds to reach the College Football Playoff.

"Things are about to get interesting after a wild Rivalry Week," ESPN College Football tweeted.

The college football world is understandably upset with ESPN's projections.

"Are we being trolled?!?!!" one fan wrote.

"I cannot stress enough the increasing similarities between ESPN’s college football content production and pro wrestling booking," one fan added.

"What?" one fan added.

"Well this won’t be controversial," another fan added.

The new College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday evening.

Hopefully they'll be different than ESPN's projections.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb ... ?ocid=AMZN

Odd E$PN would boost OSU when the conspiracy says they should be hustling for Bama.

Thoughts

[cbolt]

I agree with omega and think Herbstreit is probably right. I can see the committee leap frogging Bammer over the Bucks just because that game was so lopsided and dominated by tun on the Bucks's home field. Bammer's two losses on the other hand were last-second losses away from home in tough places. If the Bucks had played a closer game, I don't think there would be any question Bucks would be in if one of those two teams lose ahead of them. Notre Dame losing didn't help their cause. Also, Sagarin has Bammer with a much stronger strength of schedule. Interestingly though he still has Ohio State in the number two spot ahead of ttun.
A lot can still happen though so nobody should rule out the Buck getting in. It could happen!

[Valenth]

Alabama WOULD have Leapfrogged Ohio State if it wasn't for ONE SIMPLE THING..

The Atrocious showing that LSU put on after Losing to a Pitiful Drama laiden Texas A&M team. The SEC WEST champion LOSING TO A 7 LOSS TEAM?! AND Alabama Lost to that SAME TEAM? Ohio State's only loss is to an UNDEFEATED Team in Michigan. By that happening Ohio State is NO QUESTION by Resume better than Alabama... PERIOD.

Alabamas Loss to LSU Is the Nail in the coffin. NO questions asked.

MSN posting that very article because ESPN is a Fan boy for Alabama and the SEC... they are so far up Saban's Rear end they can't see the light of Day... and you know I'm right...

When LSU lost that killed Alabamas Resume...

[cbolt]

I agree val, that was a TERRIBLE showing for LSU! I still am scratching my head on how they lost that one, but the one thing Alabama has going for it is that loss to LSU was in one of the hardest if not the hardest place to play in. Death Valley is no easy place to get a victory at night no matter who you are. We will see if the committee takes that into consideration. The AP didn't so who knows? One thing we do know is the committee doesn't always go along with the AP, which is a good thing!

[Valenth]

I agree val, that was a TERRIBLE showing for LSU! I still am scratching my head on how they lost that one, but the one thing Alabama has going for it is that loss to LSU was in one of the hardest if not the hardest place to play in. Death Valley is no easy place to get a victory at night no matter who you are. We will see if the committee takes that into consideration. The AP didn't so who knows? One thing we do know is the committee doesn't always go along with the AP, which is a good thing!

Also... Alabama Lost to Tennessee who Lost to Georgia and got completely MANHANDLED by South Carolina... when Tennessee got a Mudhole Stomped in them against the Gamecocks... that also took a Hit to Alabamas body of work.

[cbolt]

Lol I know you like to go deep and compare results but bottom line is Bammer had two close last-second losses in tough places to play while the Bucks got demolished on their home field to one of the few good teams they play. In the end you might be right but we shall see.

[cbolt]

Val will be happy, Bucks stay 5th

[Valenth]

I Dig Deep into these head to heads... the Committee got it right.

[cbolt]

Yes you do! I'm frankly surprised they didn't drop farther considering their schedule ranking, bad loss at home and Notre Dame's loss but I'm happy they get that respect now.

[Omega]

Here are the full CFP Top 25 rankings for 11/29/2022

RANK # TEAM RECORD
1 Georgia 12-0
2 Michigan 12-0
3 TCU 12-0
4 Southern California 11-1
5 Ohio State 11-1
6 Alabama 10-2
7 Tennessee 10-2
8 Penn State 10-2
9 Clemson 10-2
10 Kansas State 9-3
11 Utah 9-3
12 Washington 10-2
13 Florida State 9-3
14 LSU 9-3
15 Oregon State 9-3
16 Oregon 9-3
17 UCLA 9-3
18 Tulane 10-2
19 South Carolina 8-4
20 Texas 8-4
21 Notre Dame 8-4
22 UCF 9-3
23 North Carolina 9-3
24 Mississippi State 8-4
25 NC State 8-4

Ohio State apparently is still ranked 2nd behind Georgia in some of the analytic ratings. So I guess that keeps them in the conversation despite being embarrassed by TSUN.

My opinion is as follows. Georgia and Michigan are in even if they lose their CCG's. TCU is in even with a loss as long as they are not embarrassed. Ohio State's only real shot is SoCal losing to Utah.

Then again would OSU be better served in building towards 2023 in an exhibition bowl? Break in the projected new starters as current number one's opt out for the draft or transfer portal.

I have seen some Clemson media reporting that the Tigers and Bucks are lobbying to meet in the Orange Bowl. Next Sunday will be interesting with the Playoff and NY6 bowl bids

[Bleeding Red]

Here are the full CFP Top 25 rankings for 11/29/2022

RANK # TEAM RECORD
1 Georgia 12-0
2 Michigan 12-0
3 TCU 12-0
4 Southern California 11-1
5 Ohio State 11-1
6 Alabama 10-2
7 Tennessee 10-2
8 Penn State 10-2
9 Clemson 10-2
10 Kansas State 9-3
11 Utah 9-3
12 Washington 10-2
13 Florida State 9-3
14 LSU 9-3
15 Oregon State 9-3
16 Oregon 9-3
17 UCLA 9-3
18 Tulane 10-2
19 South Carolina 8-4
20 Texas 8-4
21 Notre Dame 8-4
22 UCF 9-3
23 North Carolina 9-3
24 Mississippi State 8-4
25 NC State 8-4

Ohio State apparently is still ranked 2nd behind Georgia in some of the analytic ratings. So I guess that keeps them in the conversation despite being embarrassed by TSUN.

My opinion is as follows. Georgia and Michigan are in even if they lose their CCG's. TCU is in even with a loss as long as they are not embarrassed. Ohio State's only real shot is SoCal losing to Utah.

Then again would OSU be better served in building towards 2023 in an exhibition bowl? Break in the projected new starters as current number one's opt out for the draft or transfer portal.

I have seen some Clemson media reporting that the Tigers and Bucks are lobbying to meet in the Orange Bowl. Next Sunday will be interesting with the Playoff and NY6 bowl bids

I agree with everything but TCU losing their championship game. I think if they lose, OSU could jump them.
The B12 is not the B1G.
Last time OSU jumped into the top 4 to replace TCU, they won it all. That could still carry some weight.

Also, fan bases play a factor whether they publicly say it or not. OSU, UM, ND, Bama and USC fan based are the biggest in college football. They buy tickets.

OSU has one of the biggest fan bases in college football. That came into play in 2014 and it will again in 2022. IF TCU loses this weekend.

JMO

[Valenth]

Let's look at Kansas States Resume... they Lost to TCU (of course) They lost to Texas by a TD ... and Lost to TULANE. I mean they lost to a Ranked Group of 5 Team... BUT.. still is a dent in their resume... If TCU loses to Kansas State... a 3 Loss Team (Which one is to a group of 5 Team thats Ranked... IN MY OPINION Ohio State will Jump them.

As a whole Tulane is 10-2 ... HOWEVER they have eeked by many of their opponents. Their Losses are to Southern Mississippi and UCF... Southern Miss is 6-6 and UCF is 9-3... so Tulane has a dent in their Resume.

Michigan and Georgia are Safe...

BUT.. if Georgia LOSES to LSU... no question that Georgia would fall to 3rd Maybe even 4th. All determining on the PAC12 and BIG XII Championship games.

[Valenth]

If Looking into the Stats.. Another thing that Helped Ohio State remain in 5th also came into play when Penn State popped into the Top 10. I don't think Notre Dame Losing hurt Ohio State too much.. I mean they did lose to the team that Leapfrogged Ohio State.