Spot on Chieftain. And just a fantastic breakdown formerfcfan. As I've said before, I catch a lot of MOCAL games so I have a pretty good feel for that conference, but others in the area I'm not so knowledgeable about and really appreciate your insight.
Regarding coaches seeding, I had no idea it was that bad. I know earlier you mentioned the MOCAL politics and I know last year the northern teams voted themselves about 10 spots higher than they should have, but I guess I didn't realize there was that much bias that went into it. I'm sure some of it is just ignorance or inability to find information as well.
As far as the MOCAL "contingency" goes, it will be interesting to see how they seed each other. Like you I think Tree of Life and Shekinah Christian should probably be no lower than 7, but I can't imagine the rest of the MOCAL voting themselves very high. The MOCAL 3 years ago was the worst conference that I've ever seen and they have improved since then, but they aren't on the level of most MSL teams. Of the seven teams, only two have winning records in conference play (
https://www.mocalathletics.com/boysbasketball) and it's not like they have many strong wins out of conference. That being said, they all have strengths, so a potential upset might take place in the right matchup.
I've talked with a fair amount of opposing parents and some opposing coaches, so I'll try my hand at seeding teams as well (assuming no major injuries). Perhaps I can provide some more info on MOCAL teams and we can piece this together a little better:
Tier 1 - Favorites
Probably won't lose to a lower tier except a small chance from Tier 2
1) Fisher Catholic - strong start, schedule is tough enough, good depth, excellent guard play, and with a couple transfers they have more depth, including in the post. I saw that GCC game and they looked fantastic.
2) Danville - I don't know a ton about them, but their schedule is one of the toughest in D4 and they'll be more of a mystery than most teams in the area. They have a stud scorer, solid size, and experience.
Tier 2 - Contenders
Might be able to upset Tier 1, but could also lose to Tiers 3 or 4 under the right circumstances
3) Berne Union - Toughest part of their schedule is yet to come, but obviously they are off to a great start and will have faced some top level teams thanks to their conference, so nothing should phase them in the tournament.
4) Shekinah Christian - One of the best D4 big men in the area plays for them. Dispatch leaders say he averages about 16 points and 11 rebounds (top 5 in area) while shooting 63%. Talked with a parent and heard he nearly had triple-doubles with 9 blocks against Delaware Christian and Bishop Ready. Not sure if they've ever gotten a transfer, but they had two players who started last year that were injured to start the year and just recently returned.
Random note about Shekinah that the same parent also told me: They have several non-OHSAA games but they aren't cupcakes like Liberty Christian or Genoa Christian. They have a 3-day tournament this week against 11-3 Calvary Christian, an unknown team, and if they make the finals they would likely play a 21-3 team from Illinois. They also play New Hope Christian, who we've already established is a very solid team. Non-OHSAA games don't count toward the seedings, right? So regardless of how those go, that's 4 less games to win that other teams could pass them with. If a coach knows nothing about a team and sees one team is 14-8 and another is 12-6, I'd have to think they would look at the total wins and go by that.
5) Tree of Life - Okay I admit this could be off. They might be #3 or they might be #10. Main question is whether they are improving as the season progresses, because most teams in the district seem to be getting much better as the season moves on. They have a young team and have a very soft schedule. We should have a better idea next week because they play Shekinah on Tuesday. Last game they were down 7 to 0-10 Gahanna Christian after the first quarter and were only up 1 in the 4th. They were losing to Northside Christian twice in the second half this year. Granville Christian (minus their only good player) was beating them
5-0 after the first quarter. A bad Madison Christian team was tied in second half. So it seems like they start slow, make good adjustments, and finish strong. That might work in the MOCAL but if they get down big early to FC or Danville, I don't think they could come back.
Tier 3 - Upset Specialists
Doubtful they could beat Tier 1, but I don't think anyone in Tier 2 should be seeking them out.
6) Fairfield Christian - If they got transfers as you said, that really helps their depth. And Collins can go off at any time and carry a team to victory. I could definitely see them beating any Tier 2 teams if they are as improved as you say.
7) Grove City Christian - Tomlinson, coaching, and pride would be enough to make them a threat.
Tier 4 - Dropoff - But Still Need a Gameplan Against Them
Might lose 8 out of 10 times to a higher tier, but they have strengths that must be taken away.
8) Northside Christian - Hear me out on this one: Northside starts a 20 ppg 6'5" athletic forward, a 6'4" athletic guard, a 6'7" 300lb center, and brings a 6'3" active center and 6'2 guard off the bench. They are gigantic. However, they have trouble bringing the ball up the court and only have one average shooter, so their weaknesses are glaring. They beat Horizon Science (7-5 DIII team) but lost to International (their first win in 2 seasons). So Northside can be really good, but can also be really bad. I think with time to gameplan they will likely be beat, but with that size you just never know.
9) Millersport - Might be seeded lower due to their record, but with Pervis and some other solid players they still need to be taken seriously.
10) Granville Christian - Admittedly this is if their star is healthy. Their best player, Landon Sanford, is the best player that I've seen in the conference this season. The game I saw he probably had 27 points on 5 threes and had nearly all of their assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks. He's basically Lebron for his team with very little help. Unfortunately for them, he had a concussion earlier this year and just missed his last game as well. Granville has 7 players total.
Total. Total! So if Sanford is out then they should probably be a bottom 5 seed. But they could surprise people if he stays healthy. No team could change as much as Granville Christian when I make my end of season projections.
Tier 5 - Uh...They Were Good Last Year
Speculation based solely on sheer enrollment, but could be WAY off. Might need to switch with Tier 6.
11) Centerburg - Like you said, they have the largest enrollment of a D4 school and were a good D3 team last year before losing everyone (including their coach). They do have a respectable schedule though and I'd bet they won't be someone you can just coast through.
12) Cardington - Lost 8 of their top 9 last year but the one they return is good. Otherwise they've really struggled, so I'm sort of rating them here based on their schedule and the fact that they have the numbers to have a freshman team while others can't even field a JV team. They squeaked by a 1-11 Ridgedale team this week.
Tier 6 - Might Surprise Someone
These teams were shorthanded earlier in the year and should play better than their record.
13) Delaware Christian - Kept it close both times that they played Shekinah, but have put up some real stinkers as well. They had two starters injured earlier in the year who are healthy. Most importantly, they got a transfer from Marysville who is now their best player and is eligible for the rest of the season. They toughened up their schedule so they should be ready come tournament time.
14) Gahanna Christian - Perhaps it's a little MOCAL bias since they haven't won a game yet, but they have 4 decent players. So far this season they've played 1 game when all were healthy (or not suspended) and they were tied with Tree of Life in the 4th quarter, so I'm curious to see how they finish the season, especially since they only have 1 senior and some of those younger players should be more comfortable by the end of the year.
15) Patriot Prep - Bit of a wild card. They did have that one close game against Newark Catholic and have faced a tough schedule, but I can't imagine them beating a well-prepared team away from their NBA-sized home court. According to the Dispatch, they lost to Millersport by 32 once and beat them the next time. That 18 PPG average over their last 3 games was against some really tough competition at least.
Tier 7 - Don't Think They'll Win a Tournament Game
Started slow and don't seem to be improving.
16) Madison Christian - I've seen them alot and I just can't see them competing with a top 10 team. They are 6-9 but dig deeper and it's hard to find a good win (most were against depleted opponents). They lost 6 in a row before beating Granville Christian without Sanford. Have only scored 40+ points once in their last 7 games.
17) Ridgedale - Bad last year and lost their only two scorers. 0-11 vs. OHSAA opponents. They have a game against Delaware Christian upcoming as well as Patriot Prep, so perhaps the bottom of the Distinct can get a bit of clarity.
18) Cristo Rey - Blown out by two MOCAL schools. Once they get more established I'm sure they'll be more of a threat in future years, although that might be Division 3 by then.